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Is China Publishing & Media Holdings (SHSE:601949) Using Too Much Debt?

Is China Publishing & Media Holdings (SHSE:601949) Using Too Much Debt?

中國出版傳媒控股(SHSE:601949)使用過多負債嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  08/02 22:26

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that China Publishing & Media Holdings Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601949) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,與其擔心股價波動,不如擔心“永久性損失的可能性……而我認識的每個實際投資者都會關注這個問題。”考慮到一家公司的風險程度時,我們通常會關注其債務使用情況,因爲過多的債務會導致破產。我們特別注意到,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司(SHSE:601949)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是,股東們應該擔心其債務使用情況嗎?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業發展的工具,但如果企業無法償還債務,那麼它就存在於債權人的掌控之下。在最壞的情況下,如果企業無法償付債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,更常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,一家公司不得不以便宜的股價稀釋股東權益,才能簡單地控制債務。但是,債務可以取代股權稀釋,成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的極好工具。考慮企業使用多少債務的第一步是將其現金和債務結合在一起看待。

What Is China Publishing & Media Holdings's Net Debt?

中國出版傳媒股份有限公司的淨債務是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that China Publishing & Media Holdings had debt of CN¥76.4m at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥433.9m over a year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥5.99b in cash, leading to a CN¥5.91b net cash position.

下面的圖片(可以點擊查看更多細節)顯示,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司在2024年3月底有7640萬元債務,相比於一年前的43390萬元有所減少。但是,它也有599億現金,導致淨現金頭寸爲591億元。

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SHSE:601949 Debt to Equity History August 3rd 2024
SHSE:601949資產負債率歷史紀錄(2024年8月3日)

How Strong Is China Publishing & Media Holdings' Balance Sheet?

中國出版傳媒股份有限公司的資產負債表情況如何?

According to the last reported balance sheet, China Publishing & Media Holdings had liabilities of CN¥4.06b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.17b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥5.99b and CN¥894.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.66b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

根據最近發佈的資產負債表,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司的短期負債爲40.6億,超過12個月的負債爲11.7億。另一方面,它有59.9億現金和8,943萬元應收賬款還款期限爲1年。因此,它實際上比總負債多擁有16.6億的流動資產。這種盈餘表明中國出版傳媒股份有限公司擁有保守的資產負債表,很可能毫不費力地消除債務。簡言之,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

This surplus suggests that China Publishing & Media Holdings has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Succinctly put, China Publishing & Media Holdings boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

但是不幸的是,在過去的12個月中,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司的稅息前利潤(EBIt)下降了17%。如果這種賺錢率的下降繼續下去,該公司可能會陷入困境。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務的大部分信息,但中國出版傳媒股份有限公司的收益將影響資產負債表未來的情況。因此,如果您渴望了解更多有關其收入的信息,您可以查看其長期收益趨勢的圖表。

But the bad news is that China Publishing & Media Holdings has seen its EBIT plunge 17% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is China Publishing & Media Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

最後,公司只能用現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。中國出版傳媒股份有限公司可能在資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍然有研究其企業在利息和稅前利潤(EBIT)轉爲自由現金流方面的情況。這將影響公司管理債務的需求和能力。在過去的三年中,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司記錄的自由現金流總值爲其稅息前利潤的84%,這比我們通常預期的要強。如果需要,這將使其償還債務的能力更強。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. China Publishing & Media Holdings may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, China Publishing & Media Holdings recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 84% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

雖然調查公司的債務情況總是很明智的,但在本例中,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司的淨現金爲591億,而且資產負債表看起來不錯。最大的優點是它將EBIT的84%轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了5620萬元。因此,我們認爲中國出版傳媒股份有限公司使用債務並不冒險。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務的大部分信息,但並非所有投資風險都駐留在資產負債表上,甚至完全相反。例如,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司存在3個警示信號,我們認爲您應該意識到的。

Summing Up

總之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case China Publishing & Media Holdings has CN¥5.91b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 84% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥562m. So we don't think China Publishing & Media Holdings's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - China Publishing & Media Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務的大部分信息,但並非所有投資風險都駐留在資產負債表上,甚至完全相反。例如,中國出版傳媒股份有限公司有59.1億的淨現金和一張看起來不錯的資產負債表。最大的優點是它將EBIT的84%轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了5620萬元。因此,我們認爲中國出版傳媒股份有限公司使用債務並不冒險。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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