As you might know, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX) recently reported its quarterly numbers. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$2.6b in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$13.92 per share, some 9.5% larger than the analysts were predicting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vertex Pharmaceuticals' 30 analysts is for revenues of US$10.8b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.33 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$10.8b and losses of US$0.32 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Vertex Pharmaceuticals even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$497, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vertex Pharmaceuticals at US$600 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$325. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vertex Pharmaceuticals shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Vertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vertex Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$497, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Vertex Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com