In June 2024,the Bankig sector's system loans grew by 6.4% YoY. For the time being, Kenanga said it deems this to be still within projected 5.5%-6.0% target for CY24 on possible easing stemmed by inflation from fuel subsidy rationalisation.
Household loans maintained its growth levels at 6.4% with more traction from transport vehicles and credit cards while business loans came in similar at 6.4% growth with service industries supporting the largest increments. This was more prevalent on a MoM basis which lifted business accounts by 1.3% while households only gained 0.5% MoM. The house believes this could be due to SMEs and corporates making up for the slower festive cluttered months of the year and are now more aggressively loading up on capital.
Loan applications likely to pause. June 2024 applications increased by 2% YoY but solely on the back of more business loan
applications as households appear to be flattish. Kenanga adds that it could tie this to the abovementioned strength in service sectors, it notes that application readings declined by 12% MoM which could indicate that past levels could have been a bottleneck, supporting expectation of possible easing in the coming months.
More green in GIL numbers. Industry GIL improved slightly to 1.60% (May 2024: 1.63%, June 2023: 1.76%) as the house believes repayment habits have normalised post-festive considerations. There also appears to be an increase in industry loan loss coverage to 91.7% (May 2024: 90.8%, June 2023: 91.8%) from reversals of non-performing loans acting to overstate the level of provisions required.
CASA relatively unchanged. June 2024 system deposits grew by 4.9% YoY but was flattish MoM as spending requirements
had likely remained moderate. The house also noted that is saw CASA levels remaining stable at 28.6% (May 2024: 28.5%, June 2023: 28.2%) amidst ongoing competition on fixed deposit products likely keeping depositors sticky, albeit on possibly lower yields as compared to prior periods. With loans growth continuing to lead, industry loans-to-deposits ratio came in at 86.8% during the month (May 2024: 86.1%, June 2023: 85.5%).
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the banking sector. Market tailwinds, such as ongoing loan growth and GDP improvement along
with better margin retention, are anticipated to continue overshadowing industry headwinds like inflationary pressures and a
weaker MYR. Kenanga believes this will likely result in fewer challenges to the sector's resilience. The sector remains appealing due to attractive dividend yields (6%-7%) on most stocks, coupled with lower inherent sector volatility compared to other industries.
Significant share price movements have been observed with the influx of foreign investors aiming to acquire major sector stocks.
Sector top picks for 3QCY24 include CIMB which has been able to reach new grounds in its ROE at c.11% which the group
looks to sustain into the long term thanks to strengthening presence in both home and regional markets. Additionally, its dividend yield is creeping well into the mid-6% levels at current price points, which is the highest amongst the top three banks.
RHBBANK is also favoured for its dividends which we project to be the leader (7%-8%) amongst its peers. Meanwhile, its
associate Boost Bank may soon enter the public domain which could garner greater interest in the near-term.
As for small cap banks, ABMB remains Kenanga's favourite for its solid fundamentals which are comparable to its large cap peers. Additionally, its leading CASA level may provide the group nimbleness to balance its interest margins with market share acquisition strategies.
2024年6月,銀行部門的系統貸款同比增長6.4%。Kenanga表示,由於燃料補貼合理化帶來的通貨膨脹可能導致寬鬆,它認爲該目標目前仍在預期的24財年5.5%-6.0%之內。
家庭貸款維持在6.4%的增長水平,這要歸因於運輸車輛和信用卡的更多牽引,而商業貸款的增長幅度相似,爲6.4%,其中服務行業的增幅最大。按月計算,這種情況更爲普遍,商業帳戶增長了1.3%,而家庭環比僅增長了0.5%。衆議院認爲,這可能是由於中小企業和企業彌補了一年中較緩慢的節日混亂月份,現在正更加積極地投入資金。
貸款申請可能會暫停。2024年6月的申請同比增長了2%,但這完全是由於更多的商業貸款
家庭申請似乎不景氣。Kenanga補充說,這可能與上述服務業的強勁表現聯繫起來,它指出,申請數據環比下降了12%,這可能表明過去的水平可能成爲瓶頸,支持了對未來幾個月可能出現寬鬆的預期。
GIL 號碼更綠色。行業GIL略有上升至1.60%(2024年5月:1.63%,2023年6月:1.76%),原因是衆議院認爲還款習慣已使節後的考慮恢復正常。行業貸款損失承保範圍似乎也增加到91.7%(2024年5月:90.8%,2023年6月:91.8%),這是由於不良貸款的逆轉而誇大了所需的準備金水平。
CASA 相對沒有變化。2024年6月系統存款同比增長4.9%,但由於支出需求,環比持平
可能保持適度。衆議院還指出,在定期存款產品的持續競爭中,CASA水平保持在28.6%(2024年5月:28.5%,2023年6月:28.2%),儘管收益率可能低於前一時期,但這可能會使存款人保持警惕。隨着貸款增長持續領先,該月行業貸款存款比率爲86.8%(2024年5月:86.1%,2023年6月:85.5%)。
維持對銀行業的增持。市場不利因素,例如持續的貸款增長和國內生產總值的改善
隨着利潤率的提高,預計將繼續給通貨膨脹壓力等行業不利因素蒙上陰影
馬幣走弱。Kenanga認爲,這可能會減少該行業彈性面臨的挑戰。由於大多數股票的股息收益率(6%-7%)具有吸引力,而且與其他行業相比,該行業固有的波動性較低,因此該行業仍然具有吸引力。
隨着旨在收購主要行業股票的外國投資者湧入,已觀察到股價大幅波動。
3QCY24 的行業首選包括CIMB,該集團的投資回報率已達到約 11% 的新高度
由於在本國和地區市場的影響力得到加強,有望長期持續下去。此外,按當前價格計算,其股息收益率已攀升至-6%的中等水平,這是前三家銀行中最高的。
RHBBANK的股息也受到青睞,我們預計該股息將成爲同行中的領導者(7%-8%)。同時,它是
合夥人Boost Bank可能很快進入公共領域,這可能會在短期內引起更大的興趣。
至於小盤股銀行,ABMB仍然是Kenanga的最愛,因爲其穩健的基本面可與大盤股銀行相媲美。此外,其領先的CASA級別可能使該集團能夠靈活地平衡其利潤率與市場份額收購策略。