AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.3% to hit US$2.0b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.28, some 9.1% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, AerCap Holdings' seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$7.86b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 48% to US$8.95 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.00 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$111. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic AerCap Holdings analyst has a price target of US$130 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$103. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that AerCap Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AerCap Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$111, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AerCap Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for AerCap Holdings (2 make us uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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