What Investors Should Know About Yen Carry-Trade Unwinding That Is Sending Global Markets Into A Tailspin
What Investors Should Know About Yen Carry-Trade Unwinding That Is Sending Global Markets Into A Tailspin
Monday brought gloomy news for investors as the Australasian markets – the first to open, plunged hard, with the latest trigger being the unwinding of yen carry trades. What is this phenomenon? Does it possess the potential to scar the market for a longer term?
週一對投資者來說帶來了陰鬱的消息，作爲首批開盤的澳亞市場急劇下跌，最新的導火索是日元融資交易解除。這種現象是什麼？它有可能對市場造成長期傷害嗎？
The Trade That Thrived: The yen carry trade, a popular strategy, results when investors take advantage of the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which maintained a negative interest rate for about eight years until March and at a very nominal 0-0.1% until late-July. This marked the first hike in 17 years.
藍籌股的明星交易:日元融資交易，是一種熱門的策略，投資者利用日本銀行的超寬鬆貨幣政策獲利，該政策維持了長達8年的負利率，直到3月才開始微弱地保持在0-0.1%的水平，直到7月底才開始出現首次加息，這是17年來的首次加息。
Global investors capitalized on this and borrowed yen at very low interest rates and used the capital to purchase investments denominated in another currency in a country that has a higher rate of return. This carry trade worked fine until Japan's interest rates remained at extremely depressed levels.
全球投資者利用此策略以極低的利率借日元，並將資本用於購買以另一種貨幣計價的投資，在收益率更高的國家進行投資。這種融資交易一直運作良好，直到日本的利率保持極低水平。
The Chinese yuan is also one of the favored currencies for carry trade.
中國元也是做融資交易的首選貨幣之一。
Subsequently, the BOJ announced an increment to its key interest in late July to around 0.25%,
後來，日本銀行在7月底宣佈將其關鍵利率提高至約0.25%。
What Went Wrong? After BOJ decided to do away with its ultra-loose policy, the yen began to appreciate against most major currency pairs. Since March 19, when Japan's central bank announced its first rate increase since 2007, the yen has appreciated 5.4% against the U.S. dollar.
出了什麼問題？在日本銀行決定放棄其超寬鬆政策後，日元開始對大多數主要貨幣對升值。自3月19日日本央行宣佈自2007年以來的首次加息以來，日元升值了對美元5.4%。
The yen currently traded at JPY 143.05 versus the greenback, up 2.39%. Traders who resorted to this strategy are now staring at losses. The U.S. dollar assets they now hold, bought with borrowed yen loans, may be inadequate to make repayment, forcing them to unwind their bets.
日元目前兌美元交易價爲143.05日元，上漲2.39%。採用這種策略的交易員現在正在面臨損失。他們現在持有的美元資產是用借入的日元貸款購買的，可能不足以償還貸款，迫使他們解除下注。
Weakening U.S. economic fundamentals are not helping the dollar's cause either. Recent data points from the world's largest economy have been sore. Manufacturing activity is contracting and job market strength is fading even as inflation, despite its cooling, weighs down on consumer spending.
美國經濟基本面的疲軟情況也未能有所幫助。世界最大經濟體的最近數據點令人擔憂。製造業活動正在萎縮，就業市場強度正在減弱，儘管通脹雖然降溫，但仍給消費支出帶來壓力。
Ben Emons, Managing Director of Global Macro Strategy at Medley, sounded out the possibility of more pain. "The Yen carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net shorts being barely covered," he said on X.
Medley的全球宏觀策略總監Ben Emons表示可能會有更多痛苦。“日元融資交易的解除遠未結束，淨空倉位仍然很少得到覆蓋，”他在X上說到。
The Yen Carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net Yen shorts being barely covered pic.twitter.com/qNhVBwFhLp
— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) August 3, 2024
日元融資交易的解除遠未結束，淨空日元的頭寸很少被覆蓋pic.twitter.com/qNhVBwFhLp
—— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) 2024年8月3日
Japan's Nikkei 225 average plunged 12.40% amid the mayhem on Monday before settling at 31,458.42. This came on top of the 5.8% plunge on Friday. Intraday, the index slumped 13.4%, marking the biggest single-day drop since a nearly 15% plunge in Oct. 1987 on the day dubbed "Black Monday."
本週一，日本的日經225指數在混亂中暴跌12.40%，最終收於31,458.42。這是在週五暴跌5.8%之後。在交易日內，該指數暴跌13.4%，創下1987年10月被稱爲“黑色星期一”的近15%的單日跌幅紀錄。
South Korea's Kospi had to be halted amid a plunge and ended Monday's session down 8.77% at 2,441.55.
由於韓國的Kospi指數下跌，當時被迫暫停交易，最終於週一下跌了8.77%，至2,441.55。
iShares MSCI World ETF (NYSE:URTH)ended Friday's session down 1.83% at $144.62, according to Benzinga Pro data.
iShares MSCI World ETF (NYSE:URTH)根據Benzinga Pro的數據，在週五下跌1.83%，至144.62美元。
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