Fluor Corporation (NYSE:FLR) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues of US$4.2b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$0.97 an impressive 57% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Fluor's nine analysts is for revenues of US$17.5b in 2024. This reflects a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 26% to US$2.77. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$17.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.61 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Fluor's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$50.56, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Fluor analyst has a price target of US$61.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$42.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Fluor shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Fluor is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 23% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.7% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.0% per year. So it looks like Fluor is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Fluor following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$50.56, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Fluor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Fluor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Fluor , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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