SD Guthrie Reaps From High Yields And CPO Price Gains
SD Guthrie Reaps From High Yields And CPO Price Gains
However, this will be partially offset by declines at its Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) estates due to weather challenges. As for 2025F, we believe production growth will come on the back of better FFB yields at its Indonesia estates as they recover from the El Niño impact while FFB yields for its Malaysia estates should return to normal after the completion of rehabilitation works and sufficient skilled labourReaping the benefits of high CPO pricesCGS has initiated coverage on SD Guthrie Berhad (SDG) with an Add rating and SOP-based TP of RM5.20, equivalent to 23.6x 2025F P/E, which is below its 5-year historical mean. The Add rating it said is supported by the projections of a fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield recovery, stable to high CPO prices, and lower production costs.
CGS已開始對SD Guthrie Berhad（SDG）進行報道，Add評級和基於SOP的目標爲5.20令吉，相當於2025F市盈率的23.6倍，低於其5年曆史平均水平。該公司表示，Add評級得到了新鮮水果束（FFB）收益率回升、CPO價格穩定至高水平以及生產成本降低的預測的支持。
The house believes the current valuation is reasonable in light of the strong recovery in net profit and projects over the next two years. Key downside risks include: i) weather negatively impacting production growth, and ii) stronger-than-expected competition from Indonesian downstream players.
衆議院認爲，鑑於未來兩年淨利潤和項目的強勁復甦，目前的估值是合理的。主要的下行風險包括：i) 天氣對產量增長產生負面影響，以及 ii) 來自印度尼西亞下游企業的競爭強於預期。
Yield recovery to boost productivity
CGS expects 5% yoy fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production growth for 2024-25F. For 2024F, the growth is primarily driven by strong double-digit recovery from its Malaysian estates following the filling of vacant harvester positions and ongoing rehabilitation activities.
產量回收以提高生產力
CGS預計，2024-25財年新鮮水果束（FFB）產量同比增長5％。2024財年的增長主要是由其馬來西亞莊園在填補空缺的收割機職位和持續的修復活動之後強勁的兩位數復甦所推動的。
However, this will be partially offset by declines at its Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) estates due to weather challenges. As for 2025F, we believe production growth will come on the back of better FFB yields at its Indonesia estates as they recover from the El Niño impact while FFB yields for its Malaysia estates should return to normal after the completion of rehabilitation works and sufficient skilled labourReaping the benefits of high CPO prices
但是，由於天氣挑戰，其印度尼西亞和巴布亞新幾內亞（PNG）莊園的下降將部分抵消這一點。至於2025財年，我們認爲，隨着印度尼西亞莊園從厄爾尼諾影響中恢復過來，產量增長將歸因於FfB收益率的提高，而其馬來西亞莊園的FfB收益率將在修復工程完成和足夠的熟練勞動力後恢復正常。從高CPO價格中獲益
CGS also said it is positive on SDG's net profit growth outlook on the back of its average CPO price forecast of RM4,000/tonne for 2024F and 2025F (2023: RM3,810) and improving yields. The house expects a net profit CAGR of 53% for 2023-25F on the back of production growth from FFB yield improvements and high CPO prices. SDG has the largest oil palm planted area among all the listed plantation companies in Malaysia (total planted area 568,323 ha as of 2023), every 5% increase in CPO price will lift SDG's net profit by 23% for FY25F, based on their sensitivity analysis.
CGS還表示，對可持續發展目標的淨利潤增長前景持樂觀態度，因爲其對2024財年和2025財年（2023年：3,810令吉）的平均CPO價格預測爲每噸4,000令吉，收益率也有所提高。衆議院預計，2023-25財年的淨利潤複合年增長率爲53％，這要歸因於FfB收益率提高和CPO價格居高不下的產量增長。可持續發展目標是馬來西亞所有上市種植園公司中最大的油棕櫚種植面積（截至2023年的總種植面積爲568,323公頃），根據他們的敏感性分析，CPO價格每上漲5％，將使可持續發展目標在 FY25F 上的淨利潤增長23％。
Unlocking shareholder value with new ventures
The house thinks re-rating catalysts for SDG could come from: a) its monetisation plan from its non-strategic/non-core assets (especially rubber land) with an annual proceeds target of RM500m-700m, which may lead to higher dividend payouts, and b) expansion into solar energy, with SDG investing in three sites under the Fifth Large Scale Solar programme (LSS5) and aiming for 1GW of renewable power capacity, with a potential investment of RM2.5bn
通過新企業釋放股東價值
衆議院認爲，對可持續發展目標進行重新評級的催化劑可能來自：a) 其非戰略/非核心資產（尤其是橡膠地）的貨幣化計劃，年度收益目標爲5萬令吉.70000萬令吉，這可能會導致更高的股息支出；b) 向太陽能擴張，可持續發展目標在第五個大型太陽能計劃（LSS5）下投資三個場地，目標是1吉瓦的可再生能源產能，潛在投資爲25億令吉
