'I Do Not Think The US Economy Is In Recession:' Sahm Rule Creator Refutes Claims Amid Market Turmoil
'I Do Not Think The US Economy Is In Recession:' Sahm Rule Creator Refutes Claims Amid Market Turmoil
Claudia Sahm, the economist who invented the Sahm Rule, has contradicted claims of a recession in the U.S. economy. This comes amid mounting fears of a recession due to recent market instability.
發明Sahm規則的經濟學家Claudia Sahm反駁了美國經濟衰退的說法。這是在最近市場不穩定性帶來的衰退風險不斷上升的背景下發生的。
What Happened: Sahm, who is known for developing the Sahm Rule, a key indicator used to predict the onset of a recession, has stated that she does not believe the U.S. economy is in a recession. This assertion follows a period of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Sahm以開發Sahm Rule而聞名，該規則是預測經濟衰退跡象的重要因子之一，她表示不認爲美國經濟正在衰退。這種說法是在經濟不確定性和市場波動期間提出的。
"I do not think the U.S. economy is in recession," Sahm said, in an interview with The Compound. She emphasized that the current economic cycle is unusual, and the traditional indicators may not be accurately reflecting the situation.
“我不認爲美國經濟處於衰退狀態，” Sahm在與Compound的採訪中表示。她強調目前的經濟週期是不尋常的，傳統的指標可能無法準確反映情況。
Most analysts define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Sahm noted that while there was a GDP decline in the first half of 2022, it did not result in a recession.
大多數分析師將連續兩個季度實際國內生產總值下降定義爲經濟衰退。Sahm指出，儘管2022年上半年GDP下降，但並沒有導致經濟衰退。
These comments come in the wake of recent market turmoil, which has sparked concerns about a potential recession. The turmoil was driven by a slight increase in U.S. unemployment and significant drops in key indices, such as Japan's Nikkei 225 on Monday.
這些評論是在最近市場動盪的背景下發表的，引發了對潛在經濟衰退的擔憂。動盪是由美國失業率微增和一些關鍵指數的顯著下降，例如日本股市225在週一的情況下引發的。
However, the Japanese stock market significantly recovered on Tuesday following a historic plunge, with other Asia-Pacific markets also showing signs of improvement.
然而，日本股市在經歷歷史性暴跌後在週二大幅反彈，其他亞太市場也顯示出改善跡象。
Why It Matters: Her remarks also follow a recent challenge to the Sahm Rule by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who dismissed the rule during a press conference after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Powell's stance was in contrast to Sahm's call for immediate action to address inflation.
爲什麼這很重要：她的言論還是繼聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近挑戰Sahm Rule之後發表的，鮑威爾在聯邦儲備委員會政策會議後的新聞發佈會上駁斥了該規則。鮑威爾的立場與Sahm要求立即採取行動應對通貨膨脹的呼籲形成了鮮明對比。
The debate over whether the U.S. is in a recession has been ongoing, with notable economists weighing in. Recently, Paul Krugman highlighted potential pre-recessionary signals, pointing to the Sahm Rule as a key indicator. Krugman emphasized that the rule is sending a "cautionary message" about the U.S. economy's health.
關於美國是否經歷經濟衰退的辯論已經持續了一段時間，一些知名經濟學家也發表了自己的看法。最近，保羅·克魯格曼強調了Sahm Rule作爲重要因子之一，指出潛在的經濟衰退信號。克魯格曼強調，該規則正在發出對美國經濟健康的“警示”。
Meanwhile, U.S. services activity returned to growth in July, potentially easing recession fears. The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.4%, indicating expansion, while the S&P Global Composite PMI also showed positive signs, albeit at a slower pace.
與此同時，美國7月服務業活動出現反彈，可能緩解了經濟衰退的擔憂。ISM服務業採購經理人指數升至51.4％，表明擴張，而標普全球綜合採購經理人指數也顯示出積極跡象，儘管速度較慢。
Image via Dall-E
圖像來源於 Dall-E
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Kaustubh Bagalkote
這個故事是使用Benzinga Neuro生成的，並由Kaustubh Bagalkote編輯