Cathie Wood Downplays Impact Of Yen 'Carry Trade' On Markets: Here's Why Ark Invest Founder Thinks Fed Rate Should Be At 1% Now
Cathie Wood Downplays Impact Of Yen 'Carry Trade' On Markets: Here's Why Ark Invest Founder Thinks Fed Rate Should Be At 1% Now
The CBOE Volatility Index, known more commonly as the VIX, spiked to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic amid Monday's global market meltdown. Fund manager Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, weighed in on the implication of the development.
週一全球市場大跌,CBOE波動指數(更常被稱爲VIX),飆升至COVID-19大流行病以來未曾見過的水平。Ark Invest創始人、基金經理Cathie Wood就這一局面的影響發表了看法。
Making Sense Of VIX Move: The VIX surged past 65 intraday on Monday. Wood said this marked the fourth highest level in the past 40 years, after the "portfolio insurance" failure on Black Monday in Oct. 1987; Lehman Brothers went under in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020.
解讀波動率指數變化:週一,VIX在盤中一度飆升至65以上。伍德表示,這是過去40年中第四高的水平,僅次於1987年10月“投資組合保險”失敗、2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉以及2020年COVID-19大流行等事件,隨之而來的是撲街的市場。
In 1987 and 2020, the "panic/cathartic moves" in the VIX created significant buying opportunities in assets, particularly stocks that had been trounced, Wood said. Following the VIX spike in 2008, the broader equity markets did not bottom for another six months until March 2009.
伍德表示,在1987年和2020年,VIX的“驚慌 / 宣泄性波動”創造了重要的資產購買機會,尤其是那些被打壓的股票。在2008年VIX飆升之後,更廣泛的股票市場直到2009年3月才達到底部。
Monday's spike in VIX resulted from conditions resembling both 1987 and 2008, the Ark Invest founder said. She noted the portfolio insurance failure that led to the Black Monday in 1987 resulted from people trying to cash out at the same time. This is similar to what is happening with yen "carry trades" currently, she said.
Ark Invest創始人表示,週一VIX的飆升導致情況類似於1987年和2008年。她指出,導致1987年黑色星期一的投資組合保險失敗是因爲許多人嘗試同時賣出股票。她說,這與日元“carry trades”目前發生的情況類似。
Yen Carry Trade: Wood noted that investors and speculators were borrowing yen at "de minimis" interest rates for the past three years. They bet on the currency's continued depreciation and reinvested in higher-yielding U.S. fixed income, with some of these recently going into the Magnificent Six stocks, she said.
伍德指出,在過去三年中,投資者和投機者以“微不足道”的利率借入日元。他們押注該貨幣將繼續貶值,並將資金再投資於更高收益的美國固定收益產品,其中一部分最近投資於“六大神股”。
The Magnificent Six is a collective name given to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
“六大神股”是指NVIDIA Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA)、Meta Platforms, Inc.(NASDAQ:META)、Alphabet, Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)、Microsoft Corp.(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN)和Apple, Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL)。
As U.S. data released last week soured and the Bank of Japan raised rates further, investors and speculators faced margin calls forcing them to unwind the yen carry trade, Wood said.
伍德表示,隨着上週美國公佈的數據走弱,以及日本銀行進一步加息,投資者和投機者面臨強制平倉,迫使他們放棄日元 carry trade。
"Delivering consistent returns over many years, the yen carry trade probably was leveraged and is hurting macro-oriented strategies disproportionately," she said, adding that "like 1987 and unlike 2008, its impact could be limited."
她說:“多年來持續提供回報率的日元 carry trade 可能會槓桿縱向化,並對宏觀定向策略造成不成比例的影響。”她補充道:“類似1987年,而不是2008年,其影響可能是有限的。”
Unlike in 1987 and like 2008, broad-based price deflation could be more relevant currently, the fund manager also said. The metals-to-gold ratio suggests the 10-year Treasury note should yield 2% as opposed to the 3.8% level seen currently.
該基金經理還表示,與1987年不同,像2008年一樣,全面的價格通縮可能更爲重要。金屬對黃金的比率表明,10年期國庫債券收益率應該爲2%,而不是目前看到的3.8%水平。
Wood also said if the 10-year Treasury note yield was around 2% now, the Fed funds rate should be closer to 1%. The Fed rate is currently perched at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%.
伍德還表示,如果10年期國庫債券收益率現在約爲2%,聯邦基金利率應該更接近1%。聯邦基金利率目前高居5.25%-5.50%的22年高位。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) traded up 1.69% at $526.15, according to Benzinga Pro data.
根據Benzinga Pro數據,SPDR標普500指數交易型證券信託(NYSE:SPY)上漲1.69%至526.15美元。
- Strategist Warns 'There's A Serious Collapse That's Coming' After Monday's Global Market Crash: 'Tons And Tons Of Yen Carry Trades...Have To Be Closed Out'
- 策略師警告道:“在週一的全球市場崩盤後,有一場嚴重的崩潰即將到來:大量的日元套戥交易……必須被平倉。”
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock