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Australia Will Avoid Recession, According to Treasurer

Australia Will Avoid Recession, According to Treasurer

根據財政大臣的說法,澳洲將避免衰退。
Investing.com ·  08/06 22:42

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock has indicated that interest rate cuts will likely not occur until next year and revealed serious consideration for an interest rate hike on Tuesday.

澳洲銀行保留(RBA)行長Michele Bullock表示,減息可能要到明年才會發生,並於週二透露認真考慮加息。

The RBA placed part of the blame squarely at the feet of the Federal Government, acknowledging that government spending is contributing to prolonged inflation. The development challenges Treasurer Jim Chalmers' assertion that his budget strategy was aiding the RBA's efforts.

RBA將部分責任歸咎於聯邦政府,承認政府支出正在導致通貨膨脹長期存在。這一發展挑戰了財政部長Jim Chalmers的說法,稱他的預算策略有助於RBA的努力。

The central bank increased its underlying inflation forecasts and stated that Labor's energy rebates would not expedite the reduction of the current 4.35% cash rate. In its latest quarterly statement, the RBA also revised up its economic growth forecasts.

中央銀行提高了其基礎通脹預測,並表示工黨的能源補貼不會加速目前4.35%的現金利率降低。在其最新季度報告中,RBA還上調了其經濟增長預測。

This stronger economic outlook is attributed to ongoing spending and recent announcements by federal, state and territory governments.

持續支出和聯邦,州和地區政府最近的公告被認爲是這種更強的經濟前景的原因。

Make no mistake: inflation is still too high, and the board does remain concerned about the ­degree of excess demand in the economy," Bullock said.

請不要誤解:通貨膨脹仍然太高,董事會仍然擔心經濟中的過度需求," Bullock說。

What we can say is that a near-term reduction in the cash rate doesn't align with the board's current thinking. I understand that this is not what people want to hear."

我們能夠說的是,現金利率近期的降低不符合董事會當前的想法。我知道人們不想聽到這個。"

Treasurer defends inflation approach

財政大臣辯護通脹的方法

While the Treasurer welcomed the RBA's decision to keep interest rates on hold, further comments were contrary to the RBA's thinking.

儘管財政大臣歡迎RBA決定保持利率不變,但進一步的評論與RBA的想法背道而馳。

Dr Chalmers said he recognised cost-of-living pressures on families, but noted "the progress we've made on underlying inflation".

查爾默斯博士表示,他認識到家庭的生活成本壓力,但指出"我們在基礎通脹方面取得的進展"。

He told the ABC, the government was not anticipating a recession, despite the bloodbath on the Australian stock market this week that saw $100 billion wiped from the ASX.

他告訴澳洲廣播公司,儘管澳洲股市本週出現了金融市場血腥事件,導致ASX市值蒸發了1000億澳元,但政府不預計出現衰退。

The way that the Reserve Bank forecasts and accounts for our cost of living help is the same way that the Treasury accounts for that, and the point that's been lost since yesterday's decision is that the Reserve Bank's near-term inflation forecasts are better, not worse, and that's because of the design of our cost of living policies," he said.

他說:"儲備銀行預測和計算我們的生活成本幫助的方式與財政部門的計算方式相同,自昨天決定以來,失去的一點是儲備銀行的短期通脹預測更好而不是更糟,這是因爲我們的生活成本政策的設計。"

"What the ABS has shown in recent inflation data is that the way that we're delivering our cost of living help is putting downward pressure on inflation and that is our objective."

"ABS最近的通脹數據表明,我們提供生活成本幫助的方式正在爲通脹帶來下行壓力,這是我們的目標。"

The Treasurer rejected the RBA's claim that budget spending was fuelling inflation.

財政大臣否認了RBA關於預算支出推動通脹的說法。

Budget spending is not the primary determinant of prices in the economy but we can be helpful and we are being helpful. With the design of our cost of living policies which help us get back to targets sooner."

財政預算支出不是經濟中價格的主要決定因素,但我們可以提供幫助,而且我們正在提供幫助。通過我們的生活成本政策的設計幫助我們更快地恢復目標。"

Dr Chalmers also defended the government's energy rebates and rejected claims they had limited success in pushing down interest rates.

Chalmers博士還爲政府的能源補貼辯護,並否認了它們在推動利率下降方面的成功。

Will cost of living pressures be driven down?

生活成本壓力會下降嗎?

According to Dr Chalmers, government policies are making the RBA's job easier and subsidies are helping to drive down inflation below 3%.

根據查爾默斯博士的說法,政府的政策正在使RBA的工作變得更容易,補貼已經幫助將通脹降至3%以下。

However, the RBA forecasts headline inflation to increase from 2.8% in June next year to 3.7% in December as energy rebates conclude.

然而,RBA預測,隨着能源補貼的結束,總體通脹率將從明年6月的2.8%上升至12月的3.7%。

Opposition Treasury spokesman Angus Taylor expressed concern, noting that it was troubling the RBA had "extended the timeframe it's going to take to get back to the target level of inflation".

反對黨財政部發言人Angus Taylor表達了擔憂,指出RBA將“延長達到目標通脹水平的時間框架”令人不安。

We heard before the budget, the Treasurer tell us that the ­Reserve Bank has got their forecast completely wrong because they hadn't seen the budget," Taylor said.

Taylor說:"在預算之前,財政大臣告訴我們,儲備銀行的預測完全是錯誤的,因爲他們沒有看到預算。"

"Well, they've seen the budget now, and they've increased their forecasts for inflation, and they've said it's going to take longer to get back into the range and to get back to target."

“他們已經看過預算了,他們增加了他們對通貨膨脹的預測,並表示需要更長時間才能回到區間和目標。”

The RBA maintained the interest rates at 4.35%, with Bullock indicating that increased government spending, a robust labour market and anticipated growth in household consumption — boosted by stage three tax cuts — contributed to recent data suggesting that inflation will take longer to return to the 2-3% target range.

澳洲儲備銀行將利率期貨保持在4.35%,布洛克表示,增加的政府支出、強勁的勞動力市場和預期的家庭消費增長(通過第三階段的減稅)有助於最近的數據顯示通脹將需要更長時間才能回到2-3%的目標區間。

The RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy highlighted that the central bank's economists have a more hawkish outlook on inflation and interest rates compared to the market consensus.

澳洲儲備銀行的季度貨幣政策聲明強調,與市場共識相比,中央銀行的經濟學家對通貨膨脹和利率有更爲鷹派的展望。

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