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Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GPS)?

Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GPS)?

股票下跌、財務表現良好:市場對美國籤防線股份有限公司(紐交所:GPS)的判斷錯了嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  08/08 06:00

Gap (NYSE:GPS) has had a rough week with its share price down 12%. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. In this article, we decided to focus on Gap's ROE.

紐交所(NYSE)的Gap(GPS)經歷了一個艱難的一週,股價下跌了12%。然而,股票價格通常受公司長期的財務狀況所推動,在這種情況下,公司的財務狀況看起來相當可觀。在本文中,我們決定關注Gap的ROE。

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

roe或股東權益回報率是評估公司如何有效地從股東那裏獲得回報的有用工具。簡而言之,它用於評估公司相對於其權益資本的盈利能力。

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

怎樣計算ROE?

The formula for return on equity is:

權益回報率的計算公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

淨資產收益率 = 淨利潤(從持續經營中獲得)÷ 股東權益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Gap is:

所以,基於上述公式,Gap的ROE爲:

25% = US$678m ÷ US$2.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to May 2024).

25%= US$ 67800萬 ÷ US$ 27億(基於過去12個月至2024年5月的數據)。

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.25 in profit.

「回報率」是過去12個月稅後所賺金額。另一種想法是,對於每1美元的權益,公司能夠賺取0.25美元的利潤。

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

ROE爲什麼對淨利潤增長很重要?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

我們已經確定,ROE是公司未來賺錢能力的有效衡量標準。現在我們需要評估公司爲未來增長而再投資或「保留」的利潤。這樣,我們就能了解公司的增長潛力。一般而言,在其他條件相等的情況下,具有高淨資產收益率和利潤保留率的公司,比那些不具備這些特點的公司有更高的增長率。

Gap's Earnings Growth And 25% ROE

Gap的收益增長和25%的ROE

To begin with, Gap has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 18% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that Gap's net income shrunk at a rate of 3.0% over the past five years. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

首先,Gap的ROE非常高,這是很有趣的。其次,與行業平均ROE報告的18%相比,我們也沒有忽視這一點。毫無疑問,我們對Gap的淨收入在過去五年中以3.0%的速度萎縮感到相當驚訝。基於此,我們認爲可能存在其他原因,迄今爲止在本文中尚未討論,這可能會妨礙公司的增長。例如,公司的支付比率可能很高,或業務分配資本不善,例如。

However, when we compared Gap's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 21% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

然而,當我們將Gap的增長與行業進行比較時,我們發現在同一時期,雖然公司的收益額在縮減,但行業的收益增長率爲21%。這是相當令人擔憂的。

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NYSE:GPS Past Earnings Growth August 8th 2024
紐交所:GPS過去的收益增長

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is GPS worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether GPS is currently mispriced by the market.

收益增長是考慮估價股票的重要指標。投資者應盡力確定預期收益增長或下降,無論哪種情況,其是否被定價。然後,這有助於他們確定股票未來的亮或暗。GPS今天值多少錢?我們的免費研究報告中的內在價值信息圖表可幫助可視化GPS當前是否被市場錯誤定價。

Is Gap Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Gap是否有效地使用其留存收益?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 25% (where it is retaining 75% of its profits), Gap has seen a decline in earnings as we saw above. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

儘管Gap的三年普通支付比率爲25%(其中它保留了其利潤的75%),但Gap的盈利率已如上所述下降。因此,在這裏可能存在其他因素,可能會潛在地妨礙增長。例如,該業務已遭遇一些逆風。

In addition, Gap has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 28%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 24%.

此外,Gap在至少十年的時間內一直在支付股息,這表明儘管以業務增長爲代價,維持股息支付更爲重要。我們最新的分析師數據顯示,公司未來三年的支付比率預計約爲28%。因此,分析師預計公司未來的ROE也不會有太大變化,預計ROE爲24%。

Conclusion

結論

Overall, we feel that Gap certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

總的來說,我們認爲Gap確實有一些積極因素需要考慮。然而,低收益增長有點令人擔憂,特別是考慮到公司具有高的回報率並正在重新投入其利潤的巨大部分。看起來可能還有一些其他因素,不一定在業務控制下,正在阻止增長。話雖如此,我們研究了最新的分析師預測,並發現雖然公司曾在過去減少了其收入,但分析師預計其收入未來將增長。要了解有關該公司未來收益增長預測的更多信息,請查看有關分析師對公司的預測的免費報告。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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