Time For A Contrarian Bet On China, As Chinese Stocks Suffer Their Worst Week Since February
Time For A Contrarian Bet On China, As Chinese Stocks Suffer Their Worst Week Since February
Magnificent Seven Stocks Aren't The Only Casualties
科技七巨頭的股票不是唯一的受害者
While most investors' attention has been drawn to the nearly $2 trillion shaved off of American mega cap tech stocks' market caps this month...
大多數投資者的注意力都被這個月美國超大市值科技股市值蒸發的近2萬億吸引了...
Chinese mega caps have been getting hammered too. As Barchart noted on X, this has been their worst week since last winter.
中國超大市值公司也一直受到重創。正如Barchart在X上所指出的,這是它們自去年冬天以來表現最糟糕的一週。
Flashback To Last Winter
回憶去年冬天
Back in late January, we saw this headline on ZeroHedge: "China Stocks HIt Rock Bottom". We did some research on the big Chinese stocks, and decided Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) had the strongest fundamentals. We posted a trade alert about it the same day...
回到去年1月底,我們在ZeroHedge上看到了這個標題:「中國股市觸底反彈」。我們對中國幾家大型股票進行了一些研究,並決定阿里巴巴集團控股有限公司(NYSE:BABA)基本面最強。當天我們發佈了一份交易警報...
Though we ended up deciding to wait until after BABA's earnings the next month to place the trade. We ended up making 100% on that trade over the next few months.
雖然最後我們決定等到下個月BABA的業績之後再進行交易。在接下來的幾個月裏,我們在這項交易中賺了100%。
- Call spread on Alibaba (BABA 1.32%↑). Entered at a net debit of $2.25 on 2/8/2024; exited at a net credit of $4.50 on 5/3/2024. Profit: 100%.
- 阿里巴巴的看漲期權價差(BABA 1.32%↑)。於2024年2月8日以淨支出2.25美元的價格進入,於2024年5月3日以淨信用額4.50美元的價格退出。利潤:100%。
Alibaba Doesn't Look Like The Best Bet Today
今天阿里巴巴看起來不是最好的選擇
Here's how Alibaba's fundamentals look, according to selected metrics from Chartmill (these are all on a scale of 0-to-10, with 10 being the best).
這裏是阿里巴巴的基本面,根據來自Chartmill的選擇指標(這些指標均爲0到10的尺度,10爲最佳)。
- Overall Fundamental Rating: 5
- Profitability: 6
- Health: 5
- Growth: 5
- Valuation: 7
- 總的基本評級:5
- 盈利能力:6
- 健康狀況:5
- 成長性:5
- 估值:7
Apple Doesn't Either
蘋果公司也不是最佳選擇
If you're curious how a Magnificent Seven stock compares on those metrics, let's look at Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL):
如果你想知道科技七巨頭的這些指標如何相比,讓我們看看蘋果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL):
- Overall Fundamental Rating: 6
- Profitability: 9
- Health: 8
- Growth: 4
- Valuation: 2
- 整體基本面評級: 6
- 盈利能力: 9
- 健康: 8
- 成長性:4
- 估值: 2
This Chinese Stock Does Look Like A Good Bet
這支中國股票看起來是一個很好的選擇
In contrast, here's how the Chinese stock we're bullish on now compares:
相比之下,以下是我們目前看好的中國股票的比較:
- Overall Fundamental Rating: 8
- Profitability: 8
- Health: 9
- Growth: 8
- Valuation: 8
- 總體基本面評級:8
- 盈利能力:8
- 健康度:9
- 成長性:8
- 估值:8
This company beat on both top and bottom lines when it reported earnings in May, but its shares are down more than 20% since. The options market expects a movement of about 11% up or down after its next earnings release in August.
該公司在五月份公佈收益報告時,收入和利潤都超出預期,但自此以來股票下跌了超過20%。期權市場預計其下一個收益公告後漲跌幅度將約爲11%。
The trade we placed on Friday is a bet that the stock will be up about 10% from here by the end of August. If we're right, we'll make about 200% on that trade (and if we're wrong, we could lose up to 100%).
我們週五開的倉位是押注這隻股票到8月底將上漲約10%。如果我們猜對,我們將在這次交易中賺取約200%的利潤(如果我們猜錯,我們最多可能會虧損100%)。