Earnings Update: ThredUp Inc. (NASDAQ:TDUP) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Earnings Update: ThredUp Inc. (NASDAQ:TDUP) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
As you might know, ThredUp Inc. (NASDAQ:TDUP) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$80m missing analyst predictions by 3.3%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.13 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ThredUp after the latest results.
正如您所知,ThredUp公司(納斯達克:TDUP)上週發佈了最新的第二季度業績,對股東來說情況並不好。總體來說,營業收入爲8000萬美元,低於分析師預測的3.3%。更糟糕的是,業務報告了每股0.13美元的法定虧損,這比結果公佈前分析師的預測大得多。收益是投資者重要的時間點,因爲可以跟蹤一家公司的業績,了解分析師對明年的預測,並查看市場對公司的情緒是否有變化。讀者將會高興地得知,我們已經彙總了最新的法定預測,以查看在最新的業績表現之後分析師是否對ThredUp改變了看法。
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After the latest results, the consensus from ThredUp's five analysts is for revenues of US$300.1m in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 7.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$0.53. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$333.6m and losses of US$0.40 per share in 2024. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
在最新的業績表現之後,ThredUp的五位分析師的共識是,2024年營業收入將達到3.001億美元,較上一年的業績下降了明顯的7.0%。每股虧損預計會略微改善,降至0.53美元。在此業績發佈前,分析師們曾預測ThredUp在2024年的營業收入爲3336萬美元,每股虧損爲0.40美元。在這次更新中,情緒發生了明顯的變化,分析師們顯著削減了明年的營業收入預期,同時提高了他們對每股虧損的預測。
The consensus price target fell 20% to US$3.20, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ThredUp at US$5.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
共識價值目標下降了20%至3.20美元,分析師們顯然擔心公司的營收和盈利前景。然而,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因爲一些投資者在評估分析師價值目標時還喜歡考慮估計的範圍。目前,最看好的分析師將ThredUp的價值估計爲每股5.00美元,而最看衰的估值爲每股2.00美元。請注意,分析師的價值目標存在較大的差距?這對我們來說意味着業務存在相當廣泛的可能性場景。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ThredUp's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ThredUp is expected to lag the wider industry.
這些預測雖然很有趣,但是比較預測與ThredUp的過去業績以及同行業的同行時,更廣泛的論述可能更有用。我們要強調的是,預計營收將出現逆轉,預計到2024年年底將出現14%的年化下降。這與過去三年的13%的歷史增長相比,是一個顯著的變化。相比之下,我們的數據表明,同行業其他(受到分析師覆蓋的)公司的營收預計將以每年4.8%的速度增長,可預見的未來也是如此。因此,儘管ThredUp的營收預計將縮水,但這並不是一件好事——預計ThredUp將落後於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at ThredUp. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
需要注意的最重要的事情是,預計明年的虧損將增加,這表明ThredUp可能並不是處於良好的狀態。不幸的是,他們也下調了他們的營收預測,我們的數據顯示,與整個行業相比,它表現不佳。即便如此,每股收益對於企業的內在價值更爲重要。此外,分析師們也削減了他們的價格目標,表明最新消息已經導致人們對公司的內在價值更加悲觀。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ThredUp analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
即便如此,公司的長期收益軌跡比明年更爲重要。我們有來自多位ThredUp分析師的預測,大家可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for ThredUp (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
但在您興奮之前,我們已經發現了ThredUp的4個警告標誌(其中1個不應忽視!),您應該注意。
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