It's been a sad week for McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$548 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$79b, statutory earnings beat expectations 5.7%, with McKesson reporting profits of US$7.00 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from McKesson's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$351.8b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 29% to US$29.44. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$361.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$29.18 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at US$625even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on McKesson, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$671 and the most bearish at US$490 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting McKesson's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that McKesson is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for McKesson going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for McKesson that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.