The investors in Shopify Inc.'s (NYSE:SHOP) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 26% to US$68.55 in the week following its quarterly results. Revenues were US$2.0b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.13, an impressive 26% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Shopify's 47 analysts is for revenues of US$8.63b in 2024. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 63% to US$0.36 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.34 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$77.83, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Shopify analyst has a price target of US$100.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$65.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Shopify's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 31% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Shopify is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Shopify's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Shopify going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Shopify that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.