Results: Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Results: Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.1b, some 2.4% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.14, 33% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Grocery Outlet Holding股票(NASDAQ:GO)的投資者將會感到欣喜,該公司的最新業績表現強勁。該公司的營業收入爲11億美元,超出預期2.4%,每股收益( EPS)達到0.14美元,比預期高33%。分析師通常會在每份收益報告後更新他們的預測,我們可以根據他們的估計來判斷他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。因此,我們收集了最新的盈利法定共識預測,以查看明年可能會發生什麼。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Grocery Outlet Holding's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$4.35b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 14% to US$0.47 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.35b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.54 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.
考慮到最新的數據,Grocery Outlet Holding的13位分析師的共識意見是,2024年的營業收入將達到43.5億美元。這將反映出其營業收入相對於過去12個月的滿意增長 幅度爲4.6%。法定每股收益預計將下滑14%至0.47美元。然而,在最新的收益報告之前,分析師曾預計2024年的營業收入爲43.5億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲0.54美元。因此,在最新結果後,信心確實有所下降,注意到新EPS預測的真正下調。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.1% to US$23.64, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Grocery Outlet Holding analyst has a price target of US$29.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Grocery Outlet Holding shareholders.
令人驚訝的是,共識的股價目標下降了6.1%,達到23.64美元,分析師明顯將較低的盈利預測與股價表現聯繫起來。然而,還有另一種考慮股價目標的方法,就是看看分析師提出的股價目標範圍,因爲廣泛的預測範圍可能意味着有關業務可能結果的不同觀點。最樂觀的Grocery Outlet Holding分析師的股價目標爲29.00美元,而最悲觀的目標爲20.00美元。儘管分析師對業務存在着不同的看法,但我們認爲他們的預測範圍不足以表明極端業務結果等待Grocery Outlet Holding股東。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grocery Outlet Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.7% per year. So although Grocery Outlet Holding is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
這些預測非常有趣,但是,在比較預測方式時,看看預測與Grocery Outlet Holding過去的表現以及同行業中的同行業之比更有用。分析師預測,在2024年底之前,其收入預計將以年平均增幅9.4%展示增長。這與過去五年的10%年均增長率相符。相比之下,我們的數據顯示,在類似行業的其他公司(具有分析師覆蓋)預計其年平均收入增長率爲4.7%。因此,雖然預計Grocery Outlet Holding將維持其營業收入增長率,但無疑預計它的增長速度將快於更廣泛的行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Grocery Outlet Holding. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最大的擔憂是分析師降低了對Grocery Outlet Holding的每股盈利估計,這表明該公司可能面臨業務困境。幸運的是,他們還確認了其收入數量,這表明它與預期保持一致。此外,我們的數據顯示,預計收入增長速度將快於更廣泛的行業。此外,分析師還下調了他們的價格目標, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Grocery Outlet Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
跟隨這種思路,我們認爲業務的長期前景比明年的收益更加重要。我們對Grocery Outlet Holding的預測延伸到2026年,您可以在這裏免費查看。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Grocery Outlet Holding you should be aware of.
但是,您應該始終考慮風險。例如,我們發現Grocery Outlet Holding面臨1個警告信號,您應該注意。
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