Harris Vs. Trump: Expert Says S&P 500 Trends Could Predict 2024 Presidential Election Outcome
Harris Vs. Trump: Expert Says S&P 500 Trends Could Predict 2024 Presidential Election Outcome
In the run-up to the U.S. Presidential election, the stock market's performance could serve as a reliable predictor of the election results, as per the chief technical strategist at LPL.
在美國總統選舉前，股市表現可以作爲LPL首席技術策略師認爲的選舉結果的可靠預測器。
What Happened: Adam Turnquist, LPL's chief technical strategist, stated that the S&P 500 has an 83% success rate in forecasting the victorious political party in the Presidential elections since 1928, Business Insider reported on Thursday.
發生了什麼：據Business Insider 8月13日報道，LPL首席技術策略師Adam Turnquist表示，自1928年以來，標普500指數在總統選舉中的勝利率達到83％，可以預測勝出的政黨。
Turnquist emphasized the stock market's performance in the three months preceding the election as the key predictor.
Turnquist強調，在選舉前三個月中股市的表現是關鍵的預測因素。
"Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 was positive during the three months leading up to an election, the incumbent party remained in control of the White House 80% of the time," he explained.
「自1928年以來，在總統選舉前三個月內標普500指數上漲時，執政黨掌控白宮的概率高達80％，」他解釋道。
For example, a 24.8% fall in the S&P 500 in the three months before the 2008 election indicated the Democrats' victory, led by President Barack Obama, ending the Republican's eight-year control of the White House. Likewise, a 2.3% decline in the S&P 500 before the 2016 election signaled President Donald Trump's win, ending the Democrats' eight-year rule.
例如，在2008年選舉前三個月標普500指數下降24.8％預示着民主黨的勝利，由總統巴拉克奧巴馬領導，結束了共和黨八年的執政。同樣，在2016年選舉前標普500指數下降2.3％，預示着唐納德特朗普的勝利，結束了民主黨八年的執政。
Why It Matters: The stock market predictor, though not perfect, is noteworthy. The S&P 500 is currently down about 0.5% since the three-month window opened on Monday, hinting at the Republicans as the likely winners in November. However, with 88 days left before the election, the market's performance and its influence on the election result are still uncertain. Earlier this year, Trump credited his lead in the polls for the market's success but later blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for its crash.
爲什麼這很重要：雖然不是完美的，但股市預測器是值得注意的。自週一以來，標普500指數下跌了約0.5％，暗示共和黨人可能是11月的勝者。然而，在選舉前還有88天，市場的表現以及其對選舉結果的影響仍然不確定。今年早些時候，特朗普將其在民調中的領先優勢歸功於市場的成功，但後來卻將副總統卡瑪拉賀錦麗歸咎於市場崩盤。
The upcoming presidential debate on Sep. 10 between Trump and Harris could further influence the market and, potentially, the election outcome.
特朗普和賀錦麗之間即將於9月10日舉行的總統辯論可能會進一步影響市場，並潛在地影響選舉結果。
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) that tracks the S&P 500 was trading 0.34% lower at $528.85 during Friday's pre-market while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) was down 0.48% and was trading at $445.93 at the same time, according to Benzinga Pro.
根據Benzinga Pro的數據顯示，在2020年9月11日的盤前交易中，SPDR標普500 ETF信託（紐交所：SPY）下跌0.34％，報528.85美元，而納斯達克 100指數ETF股票（納斯達克：QQQ）下跌0.48％，同時報445.93美元。
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Image via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本報道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，並由Pooja Rajkumari編輯