A week ago, Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$30m exceeding analyst forecasts by 211%, and statutory losses of US$0.18 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering Voyager Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$65.9m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a sizeable 54% decline over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$1.49 per share in 2024. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$48.5m and US$1.51 per share in losses. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts upgrading this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

There were no major changes to the US$17.44consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Voyager Therapeutics at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 79% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 23% per year. It's pretty clear that Voyager Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Voyager Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Voyager Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Voyager Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.