Markets Experience Best And Worst Days Since 2022: What's Next In Wall Street's Rollercoaster Ride?
Markets Experience Best And Worst Days Since 2022: What's Next In Wall Street's Rollercoaster Ride?
On Monday, the index plunged 2.91%. The fall, the S&P 500's largest since September 2022, accompanied the collapse of the yen carry trade and the intensification of recession anxieties.Last week, investors faced a rollercoaster with dramatic market swings. What can we expect next for the financial markets?
上週，投資者面臨市場大幅波動的過山車，未來金融市場能有什麼預期？
The Recap: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) started 2024 up as much as 19.5% through the middle of July, a historic pace. In the second half of the month, the index retracted slightly as investors called a top on the Big Tech trade.
簡報：SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(紐交所:SPY) 從2024年初至7月中旬漲幅高達19.5%(創歷史記錄) 。月底後半段，隨着投資者認爲大型科技公司交易的頂部已到，指數略微回落。
Then on Aug. 2, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released an especially weak July jobs report, renewing recession fears. The S&P 500 fell 1.86% that Friday.
8月2日，勞工統計局發佈了一個特別疲弱的7月就業報告，重新點燃了衰退的恐懼。S&P 500在那個星期五下跌了1.86%。
On Monday, the index plunged 2.91%. The fall, the S&P 500's largest since September 2022, accompanied the collapse of the yen carry trade and the intensification of recession anxieties.
星期一，指數暴跌了2.91%。隨着日元融資交易的崩潰和經濟衰退的不安加劇，這是S&P 500自2022年9月以來的最大跌幅。
On Tuesday, the index rose 0.92%, then on Wednesday it fell 0.67%. Thursday's trading session was marked by a gain of 2.31%, the S&P 500's best day since November 2022.
星期二，指數上漲了0.92%，然後在星期三下跌了0.67%。星期四的交易中，指數上漲了2.31%，S&P 500自2022年11月以來的最佳一天。
The NASDAQ Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw even bigger swings.
納斯達克納指100etf-Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) 的波動幅度更大。
Historical Precedent: Wild periods of gains and losses are not unusual in the markets, though they usually go along with macroeconomic uncertainty, according to data from Yahoo Finance. The market's sustained period of stability from late 2022 onward makes the recent price action especially noteworthy.
歷史先例：根據雅虎財經的數據，市場的收益和損失劇烈波動在市場上並不罕見，尤其是與宏觀經濟不確定性相呼應。市場在2022年底後連續穩定的時期使最近的價格戲劇尤爲引人注目。
The most striking example of frenzied buying and selling was COVID-19's onset in 2020. The S&P 500 first faced a 10% correction in the week of Feb. 24-28. Investors bought the dip; the S&P 500 bounced 4.3% on March 2, lost 2.86% on March 3 and gained 4.2% on March 4.
購買和賣出的瘋狂示例是2020年COVID-19的爆發。S&P 500在2月24日至28日的那一週首次面臨了10%的調整。投資者買了低價，3月2日S&P 500上漲了4.3%，3月3日下跌了2.86%，3月4日上漲了4.2%。
From there, chaos ensued. The S&P 500 dipped further on March 5 and 6 before falling nearly 8% on March 9. The next day, it appreciated 5.1%. Then it shed 4.8% and 9.6% on successive days. On March 13, the S&P 500 added 8.5%. On the next trading day, the index fell a historic 10.9%.
從那以後，混亂就開始了。S&P 500在3月5日和6日進一步下跌，然後在3月9日下跌了近8%。第二天，它上漲了5.1%。接下來的兩天分別下跌了4.8%和9.6%。3月13日，S&P 500上漲了8.5%。在接下來的交易日，指數出現了歷史性的10.9%下跌。
Investors were treated to a period of sustained volatility through April.
投資者經歷了一個持續振盪的時期，直到4月。
Similar price action, albeit to a lesser magnitude, could be observed from April to December 2022. The market's behavior was accompanied by rapid hikes in the federal funds rate and the inversion of the yield curve.
從2022年4月至12月，同樣的價格波動，不過規模較小。這樣的市場行爲伴隨着聯邦基金利率的快速上升和收益率曲線反轉。
The 2008 financial crisis is another comparable example. The market sustained daily losses of as much as 9.84% and gains as high as 14.52% shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. Volatility fizzled out in mid-to-late 2009.
2008年 financial crisis 是另一個可比較的例子。9月雷曼兄弟破產後不久，市場每天損失高達9.84%和漲幅高達14.52%。波動在2009年中期至晚期消失。
What's Next?: The lesson learned is that volatility generally follows volatility.
下一步會怎樣？：吸取的教訓是，波動通常跟隨波動。
The same behavior could follow in the coming weeks — investors will closely watch macroeconomic indicators, company earnings, a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and geopolitical conflicts. Any aberrations, positive or negative, could result in a dramatic price action.
在未來幾周，同樣的行爲可能會出現——投資者將密切關注宏觀經濟指標、公司收益、聯邦利率決策和地緣政治衝突。任何積極或消極的異常都可能導致劇烈的價格變動。
It is also worth noting that 2024 is an election year, which typically leads to additional volatility in the markets. The news cycle has been particularly fast this summer and will likely intensify leading up to the November elections.
值得注意的是，2024年是選舉年，這通常會導致市場上的額外波動。新聞週期在今年夏天特別快，預計將在11月選舉前加劇。
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
圖像由Midjourney通過人工智能創建。
