In the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election, current market sentiment suggests that a victory for Donald Trump would be bullish for crypto assets, while a win for Kamala Harris is perceived as bearish.
What Happened: A Bernstein report on Monday highlights the emergence of Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, as a key indicator of election trends.
With over $500 million in bets placed, Polymarket has become the most liquid election market this season, capturing over 80% market share.
As of the latest data, Polymarket odds show Harris leading Trump by approximately 6%, with Harris at 52% and Trump at 46%.
This shift in favor of Harris has coincided with a period of weakness in the crypto markets, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) unable to reclaim its previous June highs of around $70,000.
Bernstein analysts noted this correlation, highlighting that a Republican win is seen as likely to provide tailwinds.
The Trump campaign has been vocal about its pro-crypto stance, promising favorable policies for Bitcoin and crypto innovation.
In contrast, the Harris campaign's approach to crypto regulation is perceived as less clear, leading to some uncertainty in the market.
Also Read: Copper Expands Institutional Crypto Services With Core Partnership
Why It Matters: The report also compares Polymarket trends with traditional polling data, noting that both currently show a close race.
However, Polymarket's liquidity in swing state predictions remains relatively thin compared to its national outcome markets.
Analysts expect the Bitcoin market to remain range-bound until clearer election signals emerge, likely closer to the presidential debates in September.
The cryptocurrency recently touched $61,000 before selling off to around $58,000 and recovering back above $59,000, reflecting the market's current uncertainty.
As the election approaches, market participants will be watching closely to see if blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket prove to have more predictive power than traditional polls, and how the crypto market reacts to these signals.
What's Next: The evolving relationship between the U.S. election and cryptocurrency markets will also be a key topic at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where experts will discuss the broader implications of political outcomes on digital assets and blockchain technology.
Photo: Shutterstock
在美國總統大選之前，當前的市場情緒表明，唐納德·特朗普的勝利將看好加密資產，而卡馬拉·賀錦麗的勝利則被視爲看跌。
發生了什麼：伯恩斯坦週一的一份報告強調了基於加密的預測市場Polymarket作爲選舉趨勢的關鍵指標的出現。
Polymarket的投注額超過5億美元，已成爲本賽季流動性最高的選舉市場，佔據了80％以上的市場份額。
截至最新數據，Polymarket的賠率顯示賀錦麗領先特朗普約6％，賀錦麗爲52％，特朗普爲46％。
這種有利於賀錦麗的轉變恰逢加密市場的一段疲軟時期，比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）無法收復6月份約7萬美元的高點。
伯恩斯坦分析師指出了這種相關性，他們強調共和黨的勝利被視爲可能帶來不利因素。
特朗普競選團隊一直在大聲疾呼其支持加密的立場，承諾爲比特幣和加密創新提供有利的政策。
相比之下，賀錦麗競選活動的加密監管方針被認爲不太明確，這給市場帶來了一些不確定性。
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爲何重要：該報告還將Polymarket的趨勢與傳統的民意調查數據進行了比較，指出兩者目前的競爭非常激烈。
但是，與全國結果市場相比，Polymarket在搖擺狀態預測中的流動性仍然相對較弱。
分析師預計，在更明確的選舉信號出現之前，比特幣市場將保持區間波動，可能更接近9月的總統辯論。
該加密貨幣最近觸及61,000美元，然後拋售至58,000美元左右，並回升至59,000美元以上，這反映了市場當前的不確定性。
隨着選舉的臨近，市場參與者將密切關注 Polymarket 等基於區塊鏈的預測市場是否被證明比傳統民意調查更具預測力，以及加密市場對這些信號的反應。
下一步是什麼：美國大選與加密貨幣市場之間不斷變化的關係也將成爲11月19日Benzinga數字資產未來活動的關鍵話題，專家們將在該活動中討論政治結果對數字資產和區塊鏈技術的更廣泛影響。
照片：Shutterstock
