Earnings Update: Outset Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:OM) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Earnings Update: Outset Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:OM) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Outset Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:OM), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. Unfortunately, Outset Medical delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$27m were 12% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 32% to US$0.66 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
上週Outset Medical,Inc.(納斯達克:OM)的收益未能達到預期,這可能導致分析師對該公司的看法過於看好。遺憾的是,Outset Medical公佈了嚴重的收益虧損。其營業收入爲2700萬美元,低於預期的12%,而法定虧損增長了32%至每股0.66美元。盈利對於投資者來說是重要的一部分,因爲他們可以追蹤公司的業績,觀察分析師對明年的預測,並查看市場對公司的情緒是否發生變化。我們認爲讀者將會發現分析師發佈的營收(法定)後的新預測很有趣。
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After the latest results, the consensus from Outset Medical's eight analysts is for revenues of US$110.2m in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 5.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 26% to US$2.27. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$146.5m and US$1.99 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.
最新業績發佈後,Outset Medical的八位分析師預測2024年的營業收入爲1.102億元美元,與去年相比下降了5.3%,預計虧損將大幅下降,縮小26%至2.27美元。在此之前,市場的預期爲營業收入達到1.465億美元,每股虧損1.99美元。因此,在最近的分析師更新之後,有着一些觀點的改變:分析師們在營收前景上作出了嚴重的下調,同時也預計每股虧損將會增加。
The average price target fell 39% to US$3.54, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Outset Medical's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Outset Medical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$6.00 and the most bearish at US$1.75 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
平均目標價下降39%至3.54美元,這暗示每股收益下降是Outset Medical估值的領先指標。但是還有另一種看待目標股價的方式,那就是着眼於分析師提出的目標股價區間,因爲廣泛的區間估計可能表明有關業務可能結果的看法存在多樣化。在Outset Medical存在着一些不同的看法,最看好的分析師估值爲每股6.00美元,而最看淡的估值爲每股1.75美元。在這種情況下,我們可能會給出較少的價值分配給分析師的預測,因爲如此廣泛的估計範圍可能意味着這家公司的未來很難準確估計價值。因此,根據這種廣泛的估計範圍做出決策可能並不是一個好主意。畢竟,共識的目標價格只是這種廣泛範圍估計的平均值。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Outset Medical's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 10% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Outset Medical's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
這些預測很有趣,但是在觀察預測與Outset Medical的歷史業績以及同行業公司相比時,更加宏觀的思考也是有用的。我們想強調的是,預計營業收入將會反轉,預測2024年年化下降10%。這與過去三年12%的歷史增長相比,是一個顯着的變化。將這與我們的數據相比較,我們的數據顯示,同行業中的其他公司的營收預計每年增長8.2%。很明顯,Outset Medical預計的營收表現將遠遠低於整個行業板塊。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Outset Medical. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Outset Medical's future valuation.
最重要的是注意下一年預計的盈虧變化,這表明Outset Medical的經營狀況可能並不理想。值得注意的是,他們也下調了其營業收入的預估,並且市場預計他們的營收將低於同行業板塊。共識股價目標下調顯著,分析師們對最新業績並不樂觀,這導致對Outset Medical未來估值的估計下降。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Outset Medical going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
在考慮投資時,更長期的趨勢是非常重要的。在Simply Wall St,我們提供了截至2026年的完整分析師預測,並在此處免費提供。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Outset Medical you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.
但一定要注意風險。例如,我們已經發現了Outset Medical的5個警示信號,您應該意識到其中的1個是重大的。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。