Nvidia And Other High-Flying AI Stocks Face Risk Of Falling Off A Cliff Over The Next Year? Tech Strategist Flags 'Not-So-Hidden' Costs That Market Is Not Factoring In
Nvidia And Other High-Flying AI Stocks Face Risk Of Falling Off A Cliff Over The Next Year? Tech Strategist Flags 'Not-So-Hidden' Costs That Market Is Not Factoring In
Tech companies at the forefront of the artificial intelligence revolution are facing a looming risk, which in turn could drag these stocks, according to an analyst.
人工智能革命的領導技術公司面臨着潛在的風險,這可能會使這些股票下跌,分析師說。
Hidden But Not So Hidden Costs: As AI companies are striving to justify their massive investments in GPU chips, they could be stymied by depreciation, said Barclays analysts in a recent note, according to Business Insider.
隱藏的但不那麼隱藏的成本:根據Business Insider的報道,巴克萊分析師在最近的一份報告中表示,由於GPU芯片的折舊,人工智能公司正在努力證明其龐大的投資可能會受到阻礙。
Depreciation is a book entry into the statement that apportions the value of a fixed asset over time so that a company sets aside provisions for replacing that asset at the end of its shelf life. In the books, the purchase price is recorded not as an expense but as a capital expenditure that can show higher profits upfront.
折舊是帳面上的一個條目,用於分攤固定資產的價值,以便公司在其使用壽命結束時留出更換該資產的準備金。在賬簿上,購買價格不是計入費用,而是計入資本支出,可以在前期顯示更高的利潤。
Barclays analysts called depreciation to the massive AI chip investments a "not-so-hidden" cost of AI that only very few investors will factor into their valuation analysis.
巴克萊分析師稱對AI芯片的大規模投資的折舊是AI的「不那麼隱藏」的成本,只有極少數投資者會將其納入其估值分析中。
Barclays tech strategist Ted Mortonson reportedly told Business Insider, "Because Nvidia has this very aggressive design cycle of roughly a year between major releases, all of those products have different skews and functionality and power profiles."
巴克萊科技策略師特德·莫頓森據報道告訴Business Insider說:「由於Nvidia在每次重大發布之間有大約一年的激進設計週期,所以所有這些產品都具有不同的Skews、功能和功率配置文件。」
The strategist called this a headwind that can have a big impact on valuations and potentially send AI stocks lower over the next year. Wall Street analysts are grossly underestimating the depreciation costs over the next two years, he said.
該策略師稱這可能會給估值帶來重要影響,並可能在未來一年將人工智能類股票推低。他說,華爾街分析師們嚴重低估了未來兩年折舊成本。
To make his case, Mortonson noted that while Barclays estimates depreciation costs of $28 billion for Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) in 2026, the consensus is modeling 24% less. Barclays' estimate of depreciation for Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) is $30.8 billion compared to the consensus of $21 billion.
爲了證明他的觀點,莫頓森指出,巴克萊估計2026年Alphabet,Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG)的折舊成本爲280億元,而共識模型的估計值要低24%。巴克萊估計Meta Platforms,Inc. (NASDAQ:META)的折舊成本爲308億元,而共識模型爲210億元。
Alphabet, Meta and Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares are 5%-25% more expensive than the consensus models, given this mis-modeling, Barclays' Ross Sandler said, the report added.
巴克萊的羅斯·桑德勒說,考慮到這種錯誤建模,Alphabet、Meta和Amazon,Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)股價比共識模型高出5%到25%。
Although valuations aren't stretched as they were during the bubble era such as the one seen in 2021, depreciation disconnects will likely be scrutinized given the ongoing debate where the big techs warrant multiple expansions, the report said.
儘管估值並不像泡沫時期那樣誇張,如2021年所見的那樣,但由於正在進行的辯論使得大型科技企業技術收益率的多次擴張變得更加審慎,因此折舊的斷層將受到更嚴格的關注。
Innovation Increases Risk? Extending the useful life of server assets from five years to six years or more could spread out the depreciation over a longer period of time, reducing its impact on earnings, the analysts said. But the rapid pace at which Nvidia is releasing new GPU chips could hamper this mitigative measure, they said.
創新增加風險?分析師表示,將服務器資產的有用壽命從五年延長至六年或更長時間可能會將折舊分攤到更長時間內,降低其對收益的影響。但是,Nvidia發佈新的GPU芯片的速度非常快,這可能會妨礙這種緩解措施。
Mortonson noted that the companies are spending over $200 billion and their capex was up over 50%. "We're so early in this, that combined with all the accounting, it all wraps up to return on invested capital, and I don't think you see a return on invested capital till sometime in 2025 or 2026," he said.
莫頓森指出,這些公司的支出超過2000億美元,資本支出增長超過50%。他說,「我們現在還處於早期階段,加上所有的會計,它總結爲投資回報率,我認爲投資回報率要到2025年或2026年才會出現。」
"I think the jury is still out. I think the accountants got to take a hold of it, and there's got to be much more transparency between extending the useful life of networking, storage, and servers versus GPUs. That's the bottom line," he added.
他補充說:「我認爲評判還得由會計師來進行,必須更加透明地延長網絡、存儲和服務器的有用壽命,與GPU相比。這是關鍵。」