Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) shares have had a horrible month, losing 28% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 15% in that time.
Following the heavy fall in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may consider Ford Motor as an attractive investment with its 10.5x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Ford Motor has been very sluggish. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Ford Motor will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Ford Motor would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.9%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 12% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 29% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 10% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we find it odd that Ford Motor is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.
The Final Word
The softening of Ford Motor's shares means its P/E is now sitting at a pretty low level. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Ford Motor currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.
Having said that, be aware Ford Motor is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is concerning.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Ford Motor. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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