A Look At The Fair Value Of Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300256)
A Look At The Fair Value Of Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300256)
Key Insights
主要見解
- Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥2.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd's CN¥2.83 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- The average premium for Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd's competitorsis currently 361%
- 江西星星科技有限公司基於兩階段自由現金流股權估值爲人民幣2.97元。
- 江西星星科技有限公司人民幣2.83元的股價表明其交易水平與公允價值估計相似。
- 江西星星科技有限公司的競爭對手目前平均溢價達到361%。
How far off is Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300256) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
江西星星科技股份有限公司(深圳證券交易所:300256)與其內在價值有多大偏差?藉助最新的財務數據,我們將通過估計公司未來的現金流,並將其折現到現值,來判斷股票是否定價合理。折現現金流(DCF)模型是我們將要應用的工具。您會發現,實際上並不太難跟隨,正如我們的例子所展示的那樣!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
請記住,有很多種方法可以估算公司的價值,而DCF只是其中的一種方法。對於那些熱衷於股票分析的學習者,Simply Wall St分析模型可能會引起您的興趣。
Is Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd Fairly Valued?
江西星星科技有限公司是否定價合理?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們將採用兩階段折現現金流模型,就像名稱所示,它會考慮到兩個時期的增長。 第一個時期通常是一個增長較快的時期,隨着進入第二個「平穩增長」時期的末期價值逐漸穩定。 首先,我們需要估算未來10年的現金流。鑑於我們沒有分析師對自由現金流的預估,我們需要從公司上次公佈的財務數據中推斷出之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司會減緩萎縮率,而自由現金流增長的公司將在此期間看到增長率減緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長在早期年份的放緩更甚於在後來的年份。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
DCF的核心概念是未來的每一美元都比現在的每一美元更不值錢,因此我們將這些未來的現金流貼現到當今的價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥113.0m | CN¥168.8m | CN¥228.7m | CN¥287.4m | CN¥341.4m | CN¥389.3m | CN¥430.9m | CN¥466.8m | CN¥498.0m | CN¥525.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 69.36% | Est @ 49.40% | Est @ 35.44% | Est @ 25.66% | Est @ 18.82% | Est @ 14.03% | Est @ 10.67% | Est @ 8.33% | Est @ 6.68% | Est @ 5.53% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | CN¥104 | CN¥144 | CN¥181 | CN¥210 | CN¥231 | CN¥243 | CN¥249 | CN¥249 | CN¥246 | CN¥240 |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
槓桿自由現金流量(人民幣,百萬) | 人民幣113.0m | 人民幣168.8m | 人民幣228.7m | 2.874億元人民幣 | 人民幣341.4m | 人民幣389.3m | 人民幣430.9m | 人民幣466.8m | 人民幣498.0m | CN¥525.5百萬元 |
增長率估計來源 | 預計增長率爲69.36%時的人民幣金額。 | 預計增長率爲49.40%時的人民幣金額。 | 預計增長率爲35.44%時的人民幣金額。 | 預計增長率爲25.66%時的人民幣金額。 | 預計增長率爲18.82%時的人民幣金額。 | 預估將增長14.03%。 | 估值未達到10.67% | 以8.33%估計 | 預計增長率爲6.68% | 預估5.53%後的 |
現值(CN¥,百萬)以8.2%的折現率計算 | 人民幣104元 | CN¥144 | 181元人民幣 | CN¥210 | CN¥231 | 243元人民幣 | CN¥249 | CN¥249 | 人民幣246元 | CN¥240 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.1b
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估計的自由現金流增長率)
未來10年現金流的現值(PVCF) = 21億人民幣
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.
第二階段也被稱爲終端價值,表示第一階段結束後的業務現金流。出於許多原因,使用的增長率非常保守,不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)來預測未來的增長。與10年「增長」期類似,我們使用8.2%的權益成本貼現未來的現金流。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥526m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥10b
未來收益終值(TV)= 自由現金流2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = 人民幣526m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.9%) = 人民幣10b。
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥10b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= CN¥4.7b
未來收益終值的現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 人民幣10b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= 人民幣4.7b。
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥6.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥2.8, the company appears about fair value at a 4.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
總價值,或股權價值,是未來現金流現值之和,本例中爲67億元人民幣。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數。與目前的2.8元人民幣每股股價相比,該公司似乎在現價的4.9%的折扣處於公正價值上。估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——稍微移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。請謹記這一點。
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Important Assumptions
重要假設
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.066. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
上述計算非常依賴於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議重新計算並與之玩耍。DCF也不考慮行業可能存在的週期性或公司未來的資本需求,因此不能全面展示公司潛在的表現。鑑於我們將江西第一星電路板技術有限公司視爲潛在股東,所以使用的折現率是權益成本而不是資本成本(或加權平均成本,WACC),後者考慮到債務。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.2%,這基於一個槓桿貝塔係數爲1.066。Beta是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們從全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔獲得我們的貝塔值,在0.8到2.0之間加上限制是一個合理的範圍,適用於穩定的業務板塊。
Looking Ahead:
展望未來:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd, we've put together three additional aspects you should further examine:
雖然公司的估值很重要,但在調研公司時,它不應該是您唯一看重的指標。DCF模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,應該將其視爲「這支股票被低估或高估需要的假設是什麼?」指南。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍作調整,就會極大地改變整體結果。對於江西第一星電路板技術有限公司,我們提出了三個您應該進一步檢查的額外方面:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Jiangxi Firstar Panel TechnologyLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 風險:例如,我們已經發現了江西第一星電路板技術有限公司的1個警告信號,當您在這裏投資前請注意。
- 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?
- 其他環保型公司:擔心環境問題,並認爲消費者將越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其所覆蓋的每隻中國股票的DCF計算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。