Those Who Invested in Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Five Years Ago Are up 23%
Those Who Invested in Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Five Years Ago Are up 23%
If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) share price is up 12% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 8.8% in the last year.
如果您購買並持有一支股票多年,當然希望獲得利潤。更好的情況是,您希望看到股票價格上漲,超過市場平均水平。不幸的是,對於股東來說,哈雷戴維森股份有限公司(紐交所:HOG)的股價在過去五年中上漲了12%,但低於市場回報。進一步觀察,該股票在過去一年中增長了8.8%,屬於尚可接受的水平。
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
因此,讓我們評估過去5年的基本面,看看它們是否和股東的回報率相符。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
雖然市場是一個強大的定價機制,但股價反映了投資者情緒,不僅僅是基本業績。一種有缺陷但合理的評估公司周圍情緒如何變化的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
Over half a decade, Harley-Davidson managed to grow its earnings per share at 14% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 2% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 6.99 also suggests market apprehension.
在半個世紀的時間裏,哈雷戴維森每股收益增長了14%。這種增長高於股票價格的平均年增長率2%。因此,可以得出結論,更廣泛的市場對該股持有更爲謹慎的態度。其相對較低的市盈率6.99也表明了市場的不安全感。
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
下面可以看到每股收益隨時間的變化情況(通過點擊圖像來查看確切數值)。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240815/0-23f48c2187d0fcd6856ecc4e650bf1df-0-7d618ae4c4ac02e32ebd37df29b37b5d.png/big)
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
在購買或出售股票之前,我們始終建議對歷史增長趨勢進行仔細研究,可以在這裏找到相關信息。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Harley-Davidson's TSR for the last 5 years was 23%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股票價格回報之外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報率(TSR)。TSR包括任何股票分拆或折價增資的價值,以及任何基於股息再投資的股息。可以說TSR爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。事實上,哈雷戴維森過去5年的TSR爲23%,超過了前面提到的股票價格回報。公司支付的股息也增加了總股東回報率。
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
Harley-Davidson provided a TSR of 11% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 4% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Harley-Davidson (at least 2 which are a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
過去12個月,哈雷戴維森提供了11%的總股東回報率。但這一回報率仍低於市場水平。好消息是,這一增長實際上比五年間平均年回報率4%要好。隨着業務基本面的改善,回報可能會提高。雖然考慮市場條件對股票價格的不同影響非常值得,但是其他更重要的因素更爲重要。例如,不斷存在的投資風險。我們已經確定了哈雷戴維森的3個警告信號(其中至少有2個令人不愉快),了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜歡與管理層一起購買股票,那麼您可能會喜歡這個公司的免費列表。 (提示:其中許多公司不爲人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。