Shareholders in Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS) Are in the Red If They Invested Three Years Ago
Shareholders in Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS) Are in the Red If They Invested Three Years Ago
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 26% in three years, versus a market return of about 18%.
爲了證明挑選個別股票的努力是值得的,值得努力超越市場指數基金的回報率。但如果你嘗試自己選擇股票,你可能會面臨低於市場的回報率的風險。我們很遺憾地報告說,長期以來,北方信託公司(NASDAQ:NTRS)的股東們已經有了這種經歷,股價在三年內下跌了26%,而市場回報率約爲18%。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
鑑於此,值得看看該公司的基本面是否一直是長期業績的驅動因素,或者是否存在一些不一致之處。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
儘管一些人繼續教授有效市場假說,但已經證明市場是過度反應的動態系統,並且投資者並不總是理性的。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和股價的變化情況,我們可以了解投資者對公司的態度如何隨着時間變化而變化。
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Northern Trust actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 8.0% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.
在不幸的三年中,北方信託的每股收益(EPS)實際上提高了8.0%每年。這相當令人費解,這表明股價可能有什麼暫時的支持。否則,該公司在過去被過度炒作,因此其增長令人失望。
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
值得關注其他指標,因爲EPS增長似乎與股價下跌不符。
Revenue is actually up 3.4% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Northern Trust more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
營業收入實際上在三年內增加了3.4%,因此股價下跌似乎並不取決於營業收入。這個分析只是敷衍了事,但研究北方信託更仔細地可能值得,因爲有時股票會不公平地下跌。這可能會提供機會。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
下圖顯示了收益和營收隨時間變化的情況(如果你點擊圖像,可以看到更多細節):
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240816/0-7b6a002b7bec93f51ee67f87486b3b93-0-6065803ab7e2a7c4b01f9e3aa648cebf.png/big)
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Northern Trust stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
我們喜歡內部人士在過去十二個月裏一直在購買股票。儘管如此,未來的收益對於當前股東是否賺錢將更加重要。如果你正在考慮買入或賣出北方信託公司的股票,你應該查看這份免費報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Northern Trust's TSR for the last 3 years was -18%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
考慮到任何給定股票的總股東回報率以及股價回報率都很重要。其中股價回報只反映股價的變化,TSR包括股息的價值(假設它們被再投資)以及任何折價的融資或分拆的好處。可以說,TSR給出了股票產生的回報的更全面的圖景。恰好,北方信託過去3年的TSR爲-18%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。而且,毫無疑問,股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
Northern Trust shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 3% over half a decade This suggests the company might be improving over time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Northern Trust is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...
北方信託股東今年股息含紅利收益上漲了15%,但回報率低於市場。好消息是,這仍然是一個收益,而且比半個十年的平均回報率3%還要好。這表明該公司可能隨着時間的推移而不斷改進。儘管考慮市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響的因素非常值得,但還有更重要的因素。即使如此,要注意,在我們的投資分析中,北方信託表現出2個警告信號,其中1個有點令人擔憂......
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
如果您喜歡與管理層共同購買股票,那麼您可能會喜歡這個免費的公司列表(提示:大多數公司沒有受到關注)。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。