XP Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
XP Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
It's been a pretty great week for XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$19.80 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of R$4.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, XP surprised by delivering a statutory profit of R$2.03 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
XP股票持有人的這一週非常棒,自最新的季度二業績以來,股價上漲了 13%,達到了每股 19.80美元。雖然營收達到了 42億雷亞爾,符合分析師的預期,但XP的每股收益卻超過預期,爲 2.03雷亞爾。股票收益對投資者來說非常重要,他們可以用它來評估公司的業績,觀察分析師對明年的預測,並查看共識對企業的看法是否發生了變化。我們收集了最近的法定預測,以查看這些結果是否導致分析師改變了其盈利模型。
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Following the latest results, XP's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$17.4b in 2024. This would be a decent 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.3% to R$8.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$8.20 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on XP's earnings potential following these results.
根據最新的業績,XP的九名分析師預測2024年的營收將達到 174億雷亞爾,相比過去 12 個月將增長 10%。預測法定每股收益將增長 6.3%,達到 8.48雷亞爾。而在最新的業績之前,分析師預計2024年的營收爲 172億雷亞爾,每股收益 (EPS) 爲 8.20雷亞爾。因此,共識看來在XP的盈利潛力方面變得更加樂觀。
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$24.41, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on XP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.11 and the most bearish at US$19.06 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
並沒有對US$24.41的共識價格目標進行重大調整,這表明改善的每股收益展望不足以對股票估值產生長期積極影響。考慮到分析師預測範圍的差異,評估離群值意見與均值之間的差異可能是有益的。雖然有關XP的看法存在一些差異,但最看好的分析師的估值爲每股 33.11美元,最看淡的爲每股 19.06美元。然而,由於這樣一個緊密的預測範圍,分析師似乎已經很清楚地知道他們認爲公司的價值爲多少。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 21% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that XP is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
現在讓我們來看看更宏觀的畫面,我們可以通過將這些預測與過去的業績和行業增長預測進行比較來理解它們的意義。分析師預測到 2024 年結束時,公司的增長即將如常,收入預計將以年均 22% 的速度增長。這與過去五年的年均增長率 21% 相符。與整個行業相比,分析師的估計(合計)表明,該行業的年收入增長率將達到 5.5%。因此,很明顯,XP的增長速度預計將比其行業快得多。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around XP's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$24.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
對我們來說最重要的是共識的每股收益升級,這表明人們對XP的盈利潛力明年有明顯的改善。令人高興的是,營收預測沒有發生重大改變,企業仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標保持在 US $ 24.41,最新的估計對其價格目標沒有影響。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for XP going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
記住,對投資者來說,業務的長期軌跡更加重要。我們爲 XP 制定的2026年的預測可以在這裏免費查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for XP that you need to take into consideration.
還值得注意的是,我們已經發現了1個關於XP的警告信號,需要您考慮。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。