International Paper Company's (NYSE:IP) Has Been On A Rise But Financial Prospects Look Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?
International Paper Company's (NYSE:IP) Has Been On A Rise But Financial Prospects Look Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?
International Paper's (NYSE:IP) stock is up by a considerable 15% over the past three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on International Paper's ROE.
過去三個月,國際紙業(NYSE:IP)的股價上漲了相當可觀的15%。然而,我們決定聚焦其業務的弱點,因爲企業的長期財務表現最終決定了市場結果。在本文中,我們決定關注國際紙業的roe。
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
股東權益回報率(roe)是一種關鍵指標,用於評估公司管理層如何有效利用公司資本。更簡單地說,它衡量了公司相對股東權益的盈利能力。
How Is ROE Calculated?
淨資產收益率怎麼計算?
The formula for ROE is:
roe的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
淨資產收益率 = 淨利潤(從持續經營中獲得)÷ 股東權益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for International Paper is:
因此,根據上述公式,國際紙業roe爲:
5.4% = US$462m ÷ US$8.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
5.4%= US$46200萬 ÷ US$86億(基於截至2024年6月的過去十二個月)。
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.05 in profit.
「回報」是過去十二個月的利潤。這意味着,對於每1美元的股東權益,該公司創造了0.05美元的利潤。
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
roe與盈利增長有何關係?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
到目前爲止,我們已經了解到roe是衡量公司盈利能力的指標。我們現在需要評估公司重新投資或「保留」的利潤量,從而給我們提供有關公司增長潛力的想法。其他條件相同的情況下,roe和利潤保留率均較高的公司通常是增長率比沒有這些特徵的公司高的公司。
A Side By Side comparison of International Paper's Earnings Growth And 5.4% ROE
國際紙業盈利增長和5.4%roe的並列比較
When you first look at it, International Paper's ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 15%. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 3.0% seen by International Paper was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.
當您首次查看國際紙業的roe時,它似乎並不那麼吸引人。然後,我們將公司的roe與更廣泛的行業進行了比較,很失望地發現roe低於行業平均水平15%。因此,可以說國際紙業的淨利潤下降了3.0%,很可能是由於其roe較低的結果。我們認爲這裏可能還有其他因素。例如-低利潤保留或資本配置差。因此,下一步,我們將國際紙業的表現與行業進行了比較,並發現儘管該公司一直在縮小其收益,但行業在過去幾年中的收益增長率爲12%。
So, as a next step, we compared International Paper's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 12% over the last few years.
盈利增長是股票估值的重要因素。投資者應該試圖確定預期的盈利增長或下降(無論哪種情況),是否定價。這將有助於他們確定股票是否處於光明或黯淡的未來。IP今天值多少錢?我們免費的研究報告中的內在價值信息圖表可以幫助可視化IP當前是否被市場錯誤定價。
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Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is IP worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether IP is currently mispriced by the market.
盈利增長是股票估值的重要因素。投資者應該試圖確定預期的盈利增長或下降(無論哪種情況),是否定價。這將有助於他們確定股票是否處於光明或黯淡的未來。IP今天值多少錢?我們免費的研究報告中的內在價值信息圖表可以幫助可視化IP當前是否被市場錯誤定價。
Is International Paper Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
國際紙業是否有效利用其利潤?
With a high three-year median payout ratio of 88% (implying that 12% of the profits are retained), most of International Paper's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely. To know the 4 risks we have identified for International Paper visit our risks dashboard for free.
由於高達88%的高三年中位數股息支付比率(意味着利潤的12%被保留),國際紙業的大部分利潤都被支付給股東,這就解釋了公司收益減少的原因。由於很少留下用於業務再投資,收益增長几乎不可能。要了解我們已爲國際紙業確定的4項風險,請訪問我們的風險儀表板,以獲取免費訪問。
In addition, International Paper has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 54% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 14% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.
此外,國際紙業已經連續十年支付股息,這表明即使以企業增長爲代價,保持股息支付更加重要。現有的分析師估計表明,公司未來的股息支付比率預計將在未來三年內下降到54%。公司的roe預計在同期內上升至14%,這是由於股息支付比率的下降。
Conclusion
結論
Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on International Paper. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
總的來說,我們在做出任何關於國際紙業的決定之前都應該非常謹慎。由於公司沒有爲業務再投資做太多投入,並且考慮到roe較低,因此看到其收益缺乏或不存在增長並不令人驚訝。在這種情況下,我們研究了最新的分析師預測,並發現雖然公司在過去曾經縮小其收益,但分析師預計其未來會有所增長。要了解有關該公司的最新分析師預測的更多信息,請查看分析師預測的可視化。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。