OCBC Forecasts Higher GDP Growth For Malaysia In 2024, Keeps 2025 At 4.5%
OCBC Forecasts Higher GDP Growth For Malaysia In 2024, Keeps 2025 At 4.5%
Notably, the Central Bank reported on the GDP growth which picked up to 5.9% YoY in 2Q24 versus 4.2% in 1Q24, taking 1H24 growth to 5.1%, supported by solid private consumption and export growth. OCBC in itts update,, has revises higher the 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5 % YoY from 4.2%. abd maintains its growth forecast of 4.5% for 2025.
值得注意的是，央行報告稱2014年第二季度GDP增長率爲5.9%，而第一季度爲4.2%。成爲支撐力量的是實質的私人消費和出口增長，導致上半年的增長率爲5.1%。OCBC在其報告中將2024年的GDP增長預測從4.2%上調至5%。其2025年的增長預測爲4.5%。
OCBC said the details were encouraging with private sector spending and export growth were the biggest drivers of 2Q24 GDP growth. Specifically, the private sector contribution to headline GDP growth picked up to 5.7 percentage points (pp) in 2Q24 from 4.4pp in 1Q24, driven by consumption and investment spending. This more than offset the lower public sector contribution (0.8pp versus 1.3pp in 1Q24) driven mainly by consumption spending and consistent with fiscal consolidation priorities.
OCBC表示，細節內容令人鼓舞，私人部門支出和出口增長是2014年第二季度GDP增長的最大推動因素。具體而言，私人部門對總GDP增長的貢獻從第一季度的4.4%提高到了第二季度的5.7%，以消費和投資支出爲主導。這彌補了公共部門貢獻的下降（從第一季度的1.3%下降到了0.8%），主要是消費支出，並與財政整合的優先事項相符。
The forecast is for GDP growth to remain strong in 2H24, averaging 4.9% YoY versus 5.1% in 1H24, supported by the bottoming out of the global electronics downcycle, higher investment spending underscoring progress on the government's medium-term economic development plans and resilient household spending. This will be at the upper bound of the official 4-5% GDP growth target range for 2024. For 2025, we continue to expect the economy to grow by 4.5% YoY.
預計2014年下半年GDP增長將保持強勁，平均爲4.9%，相比於上半年的5.1%，得益於全球電子衰退的止跌反彈、投資支出的增加以及政府的中期經濟發展計劃和強勁的家庭支出。這將處於2024年官方4-5% GDP增長目標範圍的上限。對於2025年，我們仍然預計經濟增長將達到4.5%。
The house noted that measures undertaken by the authorities since late February are bearing fruit and the currency (MYR) has outperformed regional peers. BNM also noted that the daily average FX trading volume was higher (USD18bn) compared to prior to the measures (2 January – 23 February 2024: USD15bn).
該機構指出，自2月下旬以來當局採取的措施正在見效，貨幣(MYR)的表現已超過區域同行。BNm還指出，每日外匯交易的成交量較採取措施前（2024年1月2日至2月23日：150億美元）有所增加（達180億美元）。