Donald Trump Cuts Kamala Harris' Election Odds Lead To 4 Points, But He Leads In These 2 Crucial Swing States
Donald Trump Cuts Kamala Harris' Election Odds Lead To 4 Points, But He Leads In These 2 Crucial Swing States
Vice President Kamala Harris continues her lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest Polymarket predictions for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
在Polymarket對2024年美國總統大選的最新預測中，副總統卡馬拉·賀錦麗繼續領先於前總統唐納德·特朗普。
What Happened: As of August 19, Harris now holds a 51% chance of clinching the presidency, while Trump trails at 47%, marking a four-point gap between the two frontrunners. This lead as the Democratic National Convention coronates the Harris-Walz ticket from Aug.19 to Aug.22 in Chicago.
發生了什麼：截至8月19日，賀錦麗現在有51％的機會獲得總統職位，而特朗普則落後於47％，這標誌着兩位領跑者之間存在四個百分點的差距。這一領先優勢是民主黨全國代表大會爲8月19日至8月22日在芝加哥舉行的賀錦麗-沃爾茲門票加冕。
Kamala is back in the lead as the Democratic National Convention kicks off. pic.twitter.com/VLyUyl10G8
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 19, 2024
隨着民主黨全國代表大會的開始，卡馬拉又回到了領先地位。pic.twitter.com/vlyuyl10G8
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) 2024 年 8 月 19 日
4,000 delegates will formally recognize Harris as the Democratic nominee after a virtual roll call confirmed the Vice President's nomination earlier this month.
在本月早些時候的虛擬唱名錶決確認了副總統的提名後，4,000名代表將正式承認賀錦麗爲民主黨候選人。
$642.9 million have been placed in bets on the Presidential Election Winner market, up from around $600 million on Aug.15.
總統大選獲勝者市場的投注額爲6.429億美元，高於8月15日的約6億美元。
Polymarket also tweeted that the former President is leading the odds in Georgia and Nevada with 57% and 53%, respectively.
Polymarket還在推特上說，這位前總統在佐治亞州和內華達州分別以57％和53％的比例領先。
According to Polymarket data on the Popular Vote Winner market, Kamala Harris has a 73% chance, compared to Trump's 26%. $107.7 million have been bet so far.
根據Polymarket關於大衆投票贏家市場的數據，賀錦麗的幾率爲73％，而特朗普的幾率爲26％。到目前爲止，已經下注了1.077億美元。
Arkham Intelligence data shows Donald Trump's crypto portfolio currently valued at $3.4 million, with $1.3 million in Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). Swinging election odds could impact the portfolio value of Trump and the broader crypto market.
阿甘情報的數據顯示，唐納德·特朗普的加密投資組合目前價值340萬美元，其中130萬美元爲以太幣（加密貨幣：ETH）。選舉幾率的波動可能會影響特朗普的投資組合價值和更廣泛的加密市場。
Richard Chen, a former general partner at 1confirmation tweeted that since the start of 2024, 88% of Polymarket volume has been election-related. The election winner and the market for democratic nominee have garnered the most trading volume thus far.
1confirmarket的前普通合夥人理查德·陳在推特上說，自2024年初以來，88％的保利市場交易量與選舉有關。迄今爲止，選舉獲勝者和民主黨候選人市場獲得了最多的交易量。