As the price of gold recently surpassed $2,500 per troy ounce, the value of a standard 400-troy-ounce gold bar has skyrocketed to the $1-million milestone for the first time in history.
This surge isn't due to a flood of consumers rushing to buy jewelry or a sudden spike in investor demand for this traditional safe haven. Instead, the rally is largely fueled by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Why Have Gold Prices Rallied This Summer?
Gold spiked 2.7% month-to-date as of Aug. 20, following a robust 5.2% gain in July. The driver? Growing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates.
Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, set for Aug. 22-24. This event is seen as critical for gaining insight into the Fed's future policy direction.
Currently, Fed futures suggest a 73.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Markets are also pricing in a cumulative 82 basis points in cuts by the end of the year, pointing to at least two more rate reductions in November and December.
These expectations have bolstered the bullish sentiment around gold. Lower interest rates generally make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, as they diminish the allure of yield-bearing alternatives.
Adding to the momentum, the U.S. dollar has weakened sharply, hitting new 2024 lows against a basket of major currencies. As the dollar depreciates, gold—priced in dollars—becomes more affordable for foreign investors, further driving demand.
The chart below illustrates the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index, represented by the green line and tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), and gold prices, depicted by the yellow line and tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD).
Image: Benzinga ProYear-to-date, gold has surged 22%, setting the stage for its best annual performance since 2020, when it gained 25%. If the current trend holds, 2024 could mark gold's second-best year since 2008, when it rocketed up by 29.6%.
While most gold bar transactions happen through authorized dealers, it's becoming easier for individual investors to enter the market. Retail giants like Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Walmart Inc. are also selling the bullion, providing a more accessible entry point for consumers.
What Can a 400-Troy-Ounce Gold Bar Buy You?
With a 400-troy-ounce gold bar now worth about $1 million, here's what you could trade it for:
- 239,258 pounds of copper
- 17 Bitcoins according to the latest Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price of $58,730
- 21 Tesla Model Y vehicles
- 4 Ferrari Roma sports cars
- 7,852 shares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
- 5,629 shares of Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).
- 4,422 shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
- 2,375 shares of Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT).
- 1,894 shares of Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META).
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Image: Shutterstock
隨着金價最近超過每盎司2,500美元,標準的400盎司金條的價值首次飆升至100萬美元里程碑。
這場漲勢並不是由於大量消費者急於購買珠寶或投資者突然對這個傳統的安全避風港需求激增所致。相反,這場漲勢主要由於圍繞聯儲局貨幣政策的預期所推動。
爲什麼黃金價格在今年夏季上漲?
截至8月20日,金價月度上漲2.7%,7月份漲幅強勁,達到5.2%。驅動因素是什麼?越來越多的預期,聯儲局將很快開始減息。
投資者特別關注即將到來的傑克遜霍爾研討會,定於8月22日至24日舉行。該活動被視爲了解聯儲局未來政策方向的關鍵。
目前,聯儲期貨表明,9月份減息25個點子的幾率爲73.5%。市場也在定價今年年底將有82個點子的減息,顯示出至少還有兩次的減息——11月和12月。
這些預期推高了金價的看漲情緒。一般來說,較低的利率使得像黃金這樣的沒有回報的資產更加有吸引力,因爲它們削弱了帶有收益的替代選擇的吸引力。
此外,美元已急劇走弱,對一籃子主要貨幣匯率創下2024年新低。隨着美元的貶值,以美元計價的黃金變得對外國投資者更加實惠,進一步推動了需求。
下圖顯示了美元指數(由綠線表示,並由Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF跟蹤(NYSE:UUP))和黃金價格(由黃線表示,並由SPDR Gold Trust跟蹤(NYSE:GLD))之間的反向關係。
圖片:Benzinga Pro今年以來,黃金大漲22%,爲其自2020年以來表現最佳的一年做好了鋪墊,當年漲幅達到25%。如果當前趨勢持續下去,2024年可能成爲自2008年以來黃金的第二個最佳年份,當時漲幅飆升了29.6%。
儘管大多數黃金條交易都是通過授權經銷商進行的,但個人投資者進入市場變得更加容易。像Costco Wholesale Corp.(NASDAQ:COST)、Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN)和Walmart Inc.這樣的零售巨頭也在銷售金條,爲消費者提供了更易於進入市場的入口。
一根400盎司的黃金條能買什麼?
現在一根400盎司的黃金條價值約爲100萬美元,你可以用它來做什麼:
- 239,258磅的銅。
- 根據最新的比特幣(CRYPTO: BTC)價格58,730美元,17個比特幣。
- 21輛特斯拉Model Y汽車。
- 4輛法拉利羅馬跑車。
- 7,852股英偉達公司(NASDAQ:NVDA)。
- 5,629股亞馬遜公司(NASDAQ:AMZN)。
- 4,422股蘋果公司(NASDAQ:AAPL)。
- 微軟公司(紐交所:MSFT)的2,375股。
- Meta Platforms公司(納斯達克:META)的1,894股。
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圖片:shutterstock