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Is Foryou (SZSE:002906) A Risky Investment?

Is Foryou (SZSE:002906) A Risky Investment?

富佑(SZSE:002906)是一個風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  08/21 00:02

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Foryou Corporation (SZSE:002906) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄說得很明白:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動性,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。」因此,聰明人知道,債務(通常與破產有關)是評估公司風險時非常重要的因素。我們注意到華陽集團(SZSE:002906)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但這筆債務是否讓股東擔憂呢?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或者通過優惠的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些債務時,債務和其他負債對於企業就會形成風險。最終,如果公司無法履行其法定的償還債務的義務,股東可能什至一無所有。不過,更頻繁的(但仍然代價高昂)情況是,公司必須以非常低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股份,以維持其資產負債表的平衡。話雖如此,大多數情況下,公司會合理地處理債務,並依照企業自身的優勢來運用借款。考慮企業使用多少債務時需要做的第一件事是查看其現金和債務的總和。

What Is Foryou's Debt?

華陽集團的債務是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Foryou had debt of CN¥77.1m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥217.3m over a year. However, it does have CN¥1.31b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥1.23b.

下面的圖片(點擊即可放大)顯示,華陽集團在2024年6月底的債務爲7710萬元,較去年減少了21730萬元。然而,它有13.1億元現金來抵消這筆債務,導致淨現金達到12.3億元。

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SZSE:002906 Debt to Equity History August 21st 2024
SZSE:002906的資產負債歷史數據(2024年8月21日)

How Strong Is Foryou's Balance Sheet?

華陽集團的資產負債表有多強大?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Foryou had liabilities of CN¥3.65b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥285.8m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.31b and CN¥3.99b worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.37b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

從最新的資產負債表數據來看,我們可以看到華陽集團在12個月內到期的負債爲36.5億人民幣,超過12個月內到期的負債爲28580萬人民幣。另一方面,它的現金爲13.1億人民幣,應收賬款爲39.9億人民幣,年內到期。因此,它實際擁有的流動資產比總負債多出13.7億人民幣。

This short term liquidity is a sign that Foryou could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Succinctly put, Foryou boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這種短期流動性表明華陽集團很可能輕鬆償還債務,因爲它的資產負債表遠未超負荷。簡言之,華陽集團擁有淨現金,所以可以說它沒有沉重負債!

On top of that, Foryou grew its EBIT by 99% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Foryou's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

另外,華陽集團過去12個月中EBIT增長了99%,這種增長將使其更容易應對債務。顯然,資產負債表是分析債務時要重點關注的領域。但是,超過任何其他因素,未來的收益將決定華陽集團保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費報告,展示分析師的盈利預測。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Foryou may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Foryou barely recorded positive free cash flow, in total. While many companies do operate at break-even, we prefer see substantial free cash flow, especially if a it already has dead.

但是,最後一個考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙上利潤支付債務,它需要現金。雖然華陽集團在資產負債表上有淨現金,但了解業務如何將利潤(利息和稅前利潤)轉化爲自由現金流非常有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和承受能力。在過去的三年中,華陽集團幾乎沒有記錄正面的自由現金流。雖然許多公司運營在保持收支平衡的狀態下,但我們更希望看到可觀的自由現金流,特別是如果已經有積壓債務的情況下。

Summing Up

總之

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Foryou has net cash of CN¥1.23b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 99% over the last year. So is Foryou's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Foryou (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

雖然我們能夠理解對債務表示關注的投資者們,但你應該記住,華陽集團擁有12.3億人民幣的淨現金,以及比負債更多的流動資產。去年華陽集團的EBIt增長了99%,給我們留下了深刻的印象。那麼華陽集團的債務是否構成風險呢?在我們看來並非如此。當你分析債務時,清楚地了解資產負債表是其中的焦點。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中——遠非如此。例如,我們已經發現了2個關於華陽集團的警告信號(其中1個有點令人擔憂!)在你投資之前,你應該明白這些。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

說到底,有時候更容易集中精力關注根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費訪問零淨債務增長股票列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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