US Economy Adds 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Initially Reported: Urgency For Interest Rate Cuts Grows Further
US Economy Adds 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Initially Reported: Urgency For Interest Rate Cuts Grows Further
The U.S. economy experienced a downward revision of 818,000 non-farm payrolls between April 2023 and March 2024, according to government data released Wednesday.
根據週三公佈的政府數據，在2023年4月至2024年3月期間，美國經濟經歷了81.8萬個非農就業人數的向下修正。
This adjustment represents a 0.5% decrease in overall job gains for the year, a greater fall than major U.S. investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were anticipating.
這一調整意味着該年度的總體就業增長下降了0.5％，降幅超過了高盛和摩根大通等美國主要投資銀行的預期。
Job figure revisions typically fall within a range of negative 0.3% to positive 0.3%. The last significant revision occurred in 2009, with a reduction of approximately 900,000 jobs or a 0.7% decrease.
就業數據修正通常在負0.3％至正0.3％的範圍內。上一次重大修訂發生在2009年，減少了約90萬個工作崗位，下降了0.7％。
Initial government estimates signaled 2.9 million job additions from April 2023 to March 2024, averaging around 242,000 jobs per month. Following the revision, the average monthly job gains dropped to 175,000.
政府的初步估計表明，從2023年4月到2024年3月，新增了290萬個工作崗位，平均每月約24.2萬個工作崗位。修訂後，平均每月就業增長降至17.5萬個。
The revision affected various sectors, with private payrolls revised downward by 819,000. The largest declines were seen in professional and business services (-358,000), leisure and hospitality (-150,000), retail trade (-129,000) and manufacturing (-115,000).
該修訂影響了各個行業，私人就業人數向下修正了819,000人。降幅最大的是專業和商業服務（-35.8萬個）、休閒和酒店業（-15萬個）、零售貿易（-12.9萬個）和製造業（-11.5萬個）。
Conversely, there were upward revisions in private education and health services (+87,000) and transportation and warehousing (+56,400). Government payrolls saw a minimal upward revision of 1,000 jobs.
相反，私立教育和醫療服務（+87,000）以及運輸和倉儲（+56,400）出現了向上修正。政府的就業人數略有上調，增加了1,000個工作崗位。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The revised employment data signaled to market participants the U.S. labor market is weaker than previously believed.
修訂後的就業數據向市場參與者表明，美國勞動力市場比先前認爲的要弱。
In response, expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with investors concerned the economy may already be cooling. As a result, the market-implied probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September surged to 32.5%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
作爲回應，對減息的預期增加了，投資者擔心經濟可能已經在降溫。結果，芝加哥商品交易所集團的聯邦觀察工具顯示，9月份市場隱含的減息50個點子的可能性激增至32.5％。
Traders fully discount a full percentage point of rate cut by year-end.
到年底，交易者對減息的整整一個百分點進行了全額折扣。
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), weakened. Treasury yields were slightly lower.
景順Db美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）追蹤的美元指數走弱。美國國債收益率略有下降。
Stocks rallied further amid increased expectations for lower interest rates. The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) was up by 0.7% at 10:45 a.m. in New York.
由於對降低利率的預期增加，股市進一步上漲。紐約上午10點45分，以科技股爲主的景順QQ信託基金（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）上漲了0.7％。
Robust gains were also seen in the S&P 500, as monitored through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), up 0.5%, and in small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), up 0.6%.
根據SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）的監測，標準普爾500指數也出現了強勁的漲幅，上漲了0.5％；根據iShares Russell 2000 ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IWM）的追蹤，小盤股上漲0.6％。
Markets now await minutes from the latest July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for release at 2 p.m. ET.
市場現在正在等待定於美國東部時間下午2點發布的7月聯邦公開市場委員會最新會議紀要。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
照片來自 Shutterstock。