The U.S. labor market's seemingly gravity-defying growth has been tempered by revisions to employment gains from April 2023 to March 2024.
The American economy has seen 818,000 nonfarm payrolls, previously reported in official government statistics, vanish into thin air.
This downward revision reduces the average monthly job gains to around 175,000, down from the originally reported 242,000.
The most significant declines occurred in professional and business services (-358,000 for the year), leisure and hospitality (-150,000), retail trade (-129,000), and manufacturing (-115,000).
On the other hand, there were upward revisions in private education and health services (+87,000) and transportation and warehousing (+56,400).
The immediate takeaway from this data is that the U.S. labor market was not as hot as initially perceived, although job gains have still been solid, amounting to approximately 2.1 million annually through March 2024.
Market Reactions: Dollar Falls As Rate-Cut Bets Increase, While Utilities, Gold Miners Rally
The downward revision to annual payroll data has heightened expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, with speculators increasingly betting on a 50-basis-point cut in September. According to the CME Group Fed Watch tool, the probability of this outcome has risen to 34.5%, up from 29% the previous day.
Traders are now fully pricing in that the federal funds rate will approach 4.25%-4.5% by the end of the year, implying a full percentage point cut from current levels.
This shift in interest rate expectations triggered a negative reaction in the U.S. dollar, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) erasing earlier gains.
In contrast, gold prices reacted positively following the release, although the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) remained in negative territory at 11:20 a.m. ET, down 0.2%.
Growth-sensitive commodities like oil declined, with the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) falling more than 1% after the data release, and down 0.3% for the day.
While the S&P 500 remained largely unchanged, notable sector movements emerged. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) dropped sharply following the data release, while the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU) saw gains.
Within industries, gold miners experienced a turnaround, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) flipping from session losses to gains.
Chart: 7 ETFs React To The Downward Revision In Employment Statistics
Image: Benzinga Pro - A Bar Of Pure Gold Is Now Worth $1 Million: What Can It Buy You?
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
美國勞動力市場看似無比堅挺的增長受到了對2023年4月至2024年3月就業增長的修正所抑制。
在官方政府統計數據中之前報告的81.8萬非農就業,已經無影無蹤。
這一下調將月均就業增長降低到約17.5萬人,相比最初報告的24.2萬人有所下降。
最顯著的下降發生在專業和商業服務板塊(年減少35.8萬人)、休閒和酒店業(15萬人)、零售業(12.9萬人)和製造業(11.5萬人)。
另一方面,私立教育和醫療服務(8.7萬)、運輸和倉儲(5.64萬)的就業數據有上調。
從這些數據中我們可以得出的直接結論是,儘管就業增長仍然很可觀,每年約增加210萬人,但美國勞動力市場並不如最初所認爲的那麼火熱。
市場反應:隨着減息預期增加,美元下跌,而公用事業和黃金礦業股市則出現了上漲。
年度薪酬數據的下調加劇了對鴿派聯儲局加息的預期,投機者越來越多地在押注9月份將會有50個點子的減息。根據芝加哥商品交易所(CME Group)的「聯儲局觀察工具」數據,這一結果的概率已上升至34.5%,高於前一天的29%。
交易員現在完全定價,聯邦基金利率將在年底接近4.25%-4.5%,相當於當前水平下的完整百分點減息。
這種對利率預期的轉變引發了美元的負面反應,因此景順Db美元指數看好基金etf(紐交所:UUP)抹去了先前的漲幅。
相反,黃金價格對數據發佈做出了積極的反應,儘管spdr黃金信託(紐交所:GLD)在上午11:20繼續處於負值區間,下跌0.2%。
像石油這樣的對增長敏感的大宗商品下跌,美國石油基金(紐交所:USO)在數據發佈後下降了超過1%,當天下跌0.3%。
儘管標普500指數基本保持不變,但引人注目的板塊活動出現。數據發佈後,金融選擇板塊spdr基金(紐交所:XLF)急劇下跌,而物料選擇板塊spdr基金(紐交所:XLB)和公用事業選擇板塊spdr基金(紐交所:XLU)出現了上漲。
在行業中,黃金礦商經歷了一次轉機,VanEck黃金礦商etf(紐交所:GDX)從盤中虧損轉爲盈利。
圖表:7只etf對就業統計數據進行下修的反應
圖片:Benzinga Pro 圖像由Midjourney通過人工智能創建。