Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd (SZSE:000966) Using Too Much Debt?
Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd (SZSE:000966) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that CHN Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000966) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
有人認爲,作爲投資者,波動性而不是債務是考慮風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過:「波動性遠非風險的同義詞。」當我們考慮一家公司的風險程度時,我們總是喜歡看看它對債務的使用,因爲債務過重可能會導致公司破產。我們可以看到,長源電力有限公司(SZSE:000966)在業務中確實使用了債務。但是這筆債務對股東來說是否令人擔憂呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業發展的工具,但如果企業無力償還其債權人,那麼它就處於他們的掌控之下。資本主義的重要組成部分是「創造性毀滅」過程,在這個過程中,失敗的企業被他們的銀行家無情地清算。然而,更普遍的情況(雖然仍然很昂貴)是企業必須以便宜的股價稀釋股東,以控制債務。當考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是考慮其現金和債務的總體情況,這樣債務才能成爲企業特別是資本密集型企業的重要工具。
What Is CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's Net Debt?
長源電力有限公司的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd had debt of CN¥22.8b, up from CN¥17.9b in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
下方的圖片顯示了2024年3月長源電力有限公司的債務爲228億人民幣,比去年的179億人民幣增加。而且該公司現金流較少,淨債務大致相同。
A Look At CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's Liabilities
瀏覽長源電力有限公司的負債情況
The latest balance sheet data shows that CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd had liabilities of CN¥10.6b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥16.1b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥299.5m in cash and CN¥1.78b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥24.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新資產負債表數據顯示,長源電力有限公司的短期負債爲106億元,到期後的負債爲161億元。與此相抵,公司持有2,9950萬元現金和17.8億元應收款項,期限不超過12個月。因此,公司的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出246億元。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥11.2b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
這種虧損對長源電力有限公司來說是個沉重的負擔,就像一個孩子揹着書包、體育裝備和小號在掙扎的份量一樣。因此,毫無疑問,我們會密切關注該公司的資產負債表。畢竟,如果今天公司必須償付債務,長源電力有限公司很可能需要進行重大再融資。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Service Corporation International的債務是其EBITDA的3.5倍,而其EBIT可覆蓋其利息開支的3.7倍。綜合考慮,雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它可以應對當前的槓桿。好消息是,Service Corporation International在過去12個月中將其EBIT提高了2.9%,從而逐漸降低了其相對於收益的債務水平。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中獲得了有關債務的大部分內容。但是,相對於資產負債表,更重要的是未來收益,這將決定Service Corporation International維持健康資產負債表的能力。如果您關注未來,您可以查看此免費報告,其中有分析師的利潤預測。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.0, it's fair to say CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 2.5 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Looking on the bright side, CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd boosted its EBIT by a silky 48% in the last year. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率爲9.0,可以說長源電力有限公司確實有相當大的債務。但好消息是,其利息償付保障倍數爲2.5倍,這意味着公司能夠負責任地履行其義務。看到這一好處,長源電力有限公司去年EBIT增長了48%。類似這種增長可以增強公司的恢復力,使其更能夠管理債務。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要重點關注的領域。但更重要的是,未來收益將決定長源電力有限公司維持健康資產負債表的能力。所以,如果你關注未來,可以查看一份顯示分析師預測盈利的免費報告。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last two years, CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,雖然稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受實實在在的現金。因此,我們明確需要看一下EBIT是否導致相應的自由現金流。在過去的兩年中,長源電力燒掉了大量現金。雖然投資者無疑希望這種情況能在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其債務使用的風險更高。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, it seems to us that CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CHN Energy Changyuan Electric PowerLtd (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
坦率地說,長源電力的EBIT和自由現金流的轉化以及其對總負債的掌控能力都讓我們對其債務水平感到不安。但至少它在增長EBIT上表現得相當不錯,這是令人鼓舞的。總體而言,對我們來說,長源電力的資產負債表對業務風險確實是一個風險。所以我們對這隻股票幾乎和一隻飢餓的小貓對主人的魚池一樣謹慎:一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井繩。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中掌握到的債務信息最爲重要。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表範圍的風險。爲此,你應該了解我們在長源電力發現的2個預警信號(其中1個有點令人擔憂)。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有這些之後,您更感興趣的是具有堅實資產負債表的快速增長公司,那麼不要拖延,查看我們的淨現金增長股票列表。
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