Expert Says 'Something Is Cracking A Little Bit In The Economy' As He Points Out Lower Hiring Rate, Rising Credit Card Delinquencies: 'Does That Turn Into Recession? Not Necessarily'
Expert Says 'Something Is Cracking A Little Bit In The Economy' As He Points Out Lower Hiring Rate, Rising Credit Card Delinquencies: 'Does That Turn Into Recession? Not Necessarily'
"But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy and the Fed, if they don't start moving, we will definitely be behind the curve."Neil Irwin, Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios, has identified various economic "warning signs" but assures recession is not yet here.
Axios首席經濟記者尼爾·歐文（Neil Irwin）指出了各種經濟「警告信號」，但他保證目前尚未陷入衰退。
What Happened: During CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday, Irwin highlighted the "warning signs" such as credit card and auto loan delinquencies, low hiring rate, and price sensitivity among consumers.
事件經過：在週三的CNBC「Squawk Box」節目中，歐文強調了「警告信號」，例如信用卡和汽車貸款拖欠、低招聘率以及消費者的價格敏感性。
"Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily," Irwin said.
歐文表示：「這會導致經濟衰退嗎？不一定。」
"But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy and the Fed, if they don't start moving, we will definitely be behind the curve."
「但這確實表明經濟中出現了一些不穩定的跡象，如果聯邦儲備委員會不開始採取措施，我們肯定會跟不上。」
.@Neil_Irwin sees lots of warning signs in the economy – from credit card and auto loan delinquencies to a lower hiring rate.
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 21, 2024
"Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily," he says. "But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy." pic.twitter.com/l72PN2wq9R
Neil Irwin在經濟中看到了很多預警信號——從信用卡和汽車貸款拖欠到招聘率的下降。
CNBC的Squawk Box在2024年8月21日發佈的推文中表示：「歐文在經濟中看到了很多警告信號，從信用卡和汽車貸款拖欠到招聘率的下降。」
他說：「這會導致經濟衰退嗎？不一定。但這確實表明經濟中出現了一些不穩定的跡象。」
Why It Matters: Irwin's comments come amid a backdrop of concerning economic data. The U.S. economy saw a downward revision of 818,000 non-farm payrolls between April 2023 and March 2024, a 0.5% decrease in overall job gains for the year. This fall was greater than what major U.S. investment banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) were expecting.
爲什麼這很重要：歐文的評論出現在令人擔憂的經濟數據背景下。在2023年4月至2024年3月之間，美國經濟對非農業就業人數進行了下調，減少了81.8萬人，全年總的就業增長率下降了0.5%。這一下滑幅度超出了高盛（NYSE:GS）和摩根大通（NYSE:JPM）等主要美國投資銀行的預期。
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs recently revised its U.S. recession forecast, reducing the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to 20%. This adjustment came just two weeks after the bank increased the odds from 15% to 25% following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
此外，高盛最近調整了其美國經濟衰退預測，將未來12個月內出現衰退的可能性降至20%。這一調整是在該銀行在一份弱於預期的七月就業報告後，僅僅兩週之後，將可能性從15%增加到25%。
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- 立法者今年進行了大量投資。藉助我們方便易行的工具，了解他們在2024年選舉之前買入和賣出的股票。
Image via Federal Reserve
圖片來源：聯儲局
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本報道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，並由Pooja Rajkumari編輯
