Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. Just Beat Revenue By 30%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. Just Beat Revenue By 30%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000975) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.6% to CN¥17.68. Revenue of CN¥3.7b came in a notable 30% ahead of expectations, while statutory earnings of CN¥0.51 were in line with what the analysts had been forecasting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
對山金國際黃金股份有限公司(SZSE:000975)股東來說,這是一個不錯的一週,因爲公司剛剛公佈了最新的第二季度業績,股價上漲了2.6%,達到人民幣17.68元。營業收入爲37億人民幣,比預期高出30%,而每股收益爲0.51元,與分析師的預測一致。對投資者來說,現在是一個重要的時刻,他們可以通過報告跟蹤公司的表現,查看專家們對明年的預測,並查看業務預期是否發生了任何變化。我們認爲讀者會對看到分析師對明年的最新(法定)盈利預測感興趣。
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Following last week's earnings report, Shanjin International Gold's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CN¥9.88b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 18% to CN¥0.75. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥9.76b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.70 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
根據上週的盈利報告,山金國際黃金的十位分析師預測2024年的營收爲98.8億人民幣,大致與過去12個月持平。每股收益預計將增長18%,達到0.75元。然而,在最新盈利報告之前,分析師們預計2024年的營收爲97.6億人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲0.70元。分析師似乎在業務方面變得更爲看好,從他們新的每股收益預測來看。
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.6% to CN¥20.47. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Shanjin International Gold analyst has a price target of CN¥22.03 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥16.65. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
分析師們在盈利升級後提高了他們的目標價,一致的目標價上漲了5.6%,達到20.47元。看一下分析師的估值範圍也是有教益的,以評估離群值觀點與平均值有多大差異。山金國際黃金最樂觀的分析師將每股價格目標定爲22.03元,而最悲觀的則將其定價爲16.65元。從這麼狹窄的估值範圍來看,分析師們顯然對他們認爲這家企業的價值有着類似的看法。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shanjin International Gold's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Shanjin International Gold's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
這些預測很有趣,但在比較預測時,看到更廣闊的輪廓也是有用的,既與山金國際黃金的過去表現相比,又與同行業的同行相比。我們要強調的是,預計營收將出現逆轉,到2024年底預計年均下降3.1%。這與過去五年的10%的歷史增長相比是一個顯著的變化。將這個與我們的數據進行比較,我們的數據顯示同行業其他公司的營收預期年均增長9.6%。很明顯,山金國際黃金的營收預計將遠遠不及整個行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Shanjin International Gold's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Shanjin International Gold's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
我們最關注的是一致預期的每股收益升級,這表明了市金國際黃金明年的盈利潛力有明顯改善。幸運的是,分析師們也重申了他們的營業收入預期,表明其與預期保持一致。儘管我們的數據確實顯示,市金國際黃金的營業收入預計會比整個行業表現更差。我們注意到價格目標的升級,這表明分析師認爲企業的內在價值有望隨時間改善。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shanjin International Gold analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
延續這種思路,我們認爲業務的長期前景比明年的盈利更爲重要。我們有來自多位市金國際黃金分析師的對2026年的預期,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Shanjin International Gold has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
您仍然需要注意風險,例如市金國際黃金存在1個警告信號,我們認爲您應該注意。
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