Japan's Core Inflation Picks Up In July, But Demand-driven Growth Below 2%
Japan's Core Inflation Picks Up In July, But Demand-driven Growth Below 2%
"The increase in the core CPI reflected a phase-out of government subsidies to curb household utility bills, and with that factor excluded, the overall inflation has been slowing," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.Japan's core inflation accelerated for a third straight month in July, data showed on Friday, but a slowdown in demand-driven price growth could complicate the central bank's decision on further interest hikes in coming months.
數據顯示，日本7月核心通脹率連續第三個月加速，但需求驅動的物價增長放緩可能會對央行在未來幾個月進一步加息的決策帶來複雜性。
The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food items, rose 2.7% from a year earlier, slower than a 2.6% climb in June. It matched the median market forecast and put the inflation rate at or above the central bank's 2% target for the 28th straight month.
全國核心消費者物價指數（CPI），不包括新鮮食品，同比上漲2.7%，比6月的2.6%漲幅略慢。與市場預測的中位數相符，並使通脹率連續第28個月達到或超過中央銀行的2%目標。
But the "core core" index, which excludes fresh food and energy costs and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as a key gauge of broader inflation trends, rose 1.9% after increasing 2.2% in June. It dipped below the key 2% line for the first time since September 2022.
但"核心核心"指數（不包括新鮮食品和能源成本），作爲日本銀行（BOJ）密切關注的衡量更廣泛通脹趨勢的重要指標，6月增長2.2%後，下降到1.9%。這是自2022年9月以來首次跌破關鍵的2%線。
"The increase in the core CPI reflected a phase-out of government subsidies to curb household utility bills, and with that factor excluded, the overall inflation has been slowing," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
"核心CPI的增長反映了政府削減家庭水電費補貼的逐漸退出，除去了這個因素，整體通脹趨勢得到放緩，" Sompo Institute Plus高級經濟學家Masato Koike說。
With utility bill relief reinstated and the yen's recent rebound now pushing down import costs, core CPI growth "is likely to slow down hereafter," he said.
由於水電費減免恢復，以及日元最近的反彈推動進口成本下降，核心CPI的增長"將在此後有可能放緩，"他說。
Inflation data is seen as key to further decisions on rate hikes by the BOJ, which surprised markets in July by raising interest rates to a 15-year high and signalling its readiness to hike borrowing costs further on growing prospects that inflation will durably hit its 2% target.
通脹數據被認爲對於日本銀行進一步決定加息至關重要。日本銀行在7月令市場感到意外地將利率提高到15年來的高點，並暗示將進一步提高借貸成本，因爲通脹有望持久地達到其2%的目標。
The BOJ's hawkish tone led the battered yen to soar and Tokyo stocks to plunge in their biggest single-day rout since 1987's Black Monday sell-off. Although markets have since stabilised, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been asked to discuss the July rate decision at parliament on Friday.
日本銀行的鷹派言論導致日元狂飆，東京股市遭遇自1987年黑色星期一拋售以來的最大單日暴跌。儘管市場已經穩定，但日本銀行行長上田和夫被要求在星期五的國會上討論7月的利率決定。
Data released last week showed Japan's economy rebounded much faster than expected in the second quarter on robust consumption, backing the case for the central bank to continue its monetary policy tightening campaign.
上週公佈的數據顯示，日本經濟在第二季度反彈速度遠遠超過預期，消費強勁，進一步支持央行繼續實施貨幣政策緊縮的論點。
In a Reuters poll this month, 57% of economists predicted the BOJ would raise borrowing costs again by the end of the year. – Reuters
根據路透社本月的一項調查，57%的經濟學家預計日本銀行將在年底再次提高借款成本。- 路透社