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Top Economist Forecasts 25 Basis Point Cut In September, Expects Jerome Powell To Adopt A 'Dovish Tone' At Jackson Hole

Top Economist Forecasts 25 Basis Point Cut In September, Expects Jerome Powell To Adopt A 'Dovish Tone' At Jackson Hole

頂級經濟學家預測九月份將會有25個點子的減息,預計傑羅姆·鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾會議上採取「鴿派態度」。
Benzinga ·  08/23 05:10

David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS), shared his predictions for the forthcoming speech from the Federal Reserve chief in Jackson Hole.

黃金薩克斯集團(紐交所:GS)首席美國經濟學家大衛·梅里克爾分享了他對即將在傑克遜霍爾舉行的聯儲局主席講話的預測。

What Happened: Mericle suggested that a cut is broadly agreed upon by the committee following the latest Federal Reserve minutes. The uncertainty lies in whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. He expects Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to present a more dovish version of the comments made after the July FOMC meeting.

發生了什麼:梅里克爾建議,委員會在最新的聯邦儲備委員會會議紀要後,普遍同意進行削減。不確定性在於削減幅度是25點點子還是50點點子。他預計聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將在七月貨幣政策委員會會議後做出更多鴿派的評論。

"I suspect what we will get from Powell tomorrow is a more dovish version of the remarks that we gave after the July FOMC meeting; a little bit more dovish, a little bit more confident on inflation, a little bit more concerned about the labor market," Mericle said while appearing for CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime."

「我懷疑我們明天從鮑威爾那裏得到的是七月貨幣政策委員會會議後更鴿派的言論;更加鴿派,更加對通脹有信心,更加關注勞動力市場的問題,」梅里克爾在出現在 CNBC 的「收盤鈴後加班」節目中說。

He also conveyed his expectation that the August employment report would show an improvement over July's. In this case, he forecasts a 25 basis point cut in September. He also pointed to potential risks, such as a quicker pace of cutting if Powell shows increased concern over the labor market or the current level of the funds rate.

他還表達了他對八月就業報告將顯示好於七月的預期。在這種情況下,他預測九月會減息25點點子。他還指出了潛在風險,例如,如果鮑威爾表現出對勞動力市場或目前資金利率水平的擔憂增加,就可能會採取更快的減息步伐。

On the topic of inflation fears, Mericle indicated that the committee is "moving beyond that," given the recent positive inflation data.

在通脹擔憂方面,梅里克爾表示,鑑於最近的積極通脹數據,委員會正在「擺脫這一問題」。

"The people who were more concerned will kind of move toward where the rest of the committee is and say, 'you know, we are kind of over this problem,' and be more ready to cut," he said, adding that the larger issue is the perceived downside risk in the labor market and whether it warrants a more aggressive move.

「更擔心的人將會更趨向於委員會的觀點,並會說,『你知道,我們已經解決了這個問題,』 並會更願意削減,」他說,並補充說更大的問題是勞動力市場的認知下行風險,以及是否有必要採取更積極的行動。

Why It Matters: Investors' expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting have been strengthened by the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which highlighted continued progress in disinflation. This has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts.

爲什麼重要:七月聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議紀要加強了投資者對於九月會議減息的預期,強調了通縮的持續進展。這導致了美元指數的下降,正如紐交所Invesco Db 美元指數看漲基金etf(NYSE:UUP)所跟蹤的那樣,因爲對聯儲局減息預期上升。

Investors are keenly watching for any short-term monetary policy guidance from Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, as the market has historically been sensitive to his remarks.

投資者急切關注聯儲局傑克遜霍爾研討會上鮑威爾講話中對短期貨幣政策的指導,因爲市場歷來對他的言論非常敏感。

Members of the Federal Reserve, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, have hinted at a potential shift towards lowering interest rates as early as September, just before Powell's highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

聯儲局成員,包括波士頓聯邦儲備銀行主席蘇珊·科林斯和費城聯邦儲備銀行主席帕特里克·哈克,暗示將可能在九月提前降低利率,就在鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾研討會上備受期待的演講之前。

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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari

本報道使用Benzinga Neuro生成,並由Pooja Rajkumari編輯

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