Jerome Powell: 'Time Has Come' For Interest Rate Cuts, Cooling In Labor Market 'Unmistakable'
Jerome Powell: 'Time Has Come' For Interest Rate Cuts, Cooling In Labor Market 'Unmistakable'
"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," he said.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled Friday that it's time to adjust monetary policy, effectively paving the way for the beginning of interest rate cuts.
聯儲局主席鮑威爾週五表示，現在是調整貨幣政策的時機，爲減息的開始鋪平了道路。
Powell refrained from committing to a predetermined path for rate cuts or providing any hints about their size, emphasizing the decision will depend on incoming data.
鮑威爾沒有承諾預設減息路徑或提供任何關於減息規模的暗示，強調決定將取決於即將到來的數據。
"My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent," the Fed chair said at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
聯儲局主席在傑克遜霍爾研討會上表示：「我對通脹回到2%的可持續路徑的信心增強。」
"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," he said.
他說：「調整政策的時機已經到來。行程方向明確，減息的時間和速度將取決於即將到來的數據、演變中的前景和風險平衡。」
Powell acknowledged that tackling inflation might bring "some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth," but added the current high interest rates provide the Fed with "ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions."
鮑威爾承認，解決通脹問題可能會帶來「一些痛苦，包括高失業率和經濟增長放緩」，但他補充說，當前較高的利率爲聯儲局提供了「足夠的回應任何風險，包括勞動力市場條件進一步惡化的風險」的空間。
Powell's speech signals the Fed is now placing greater emphasis on its dual mandate — price stability and maximum employment — and shifting away from its previous exclusive focus on inflation.
鮑威爾的講話表明，聯儲局現在更加重視其雙重任務——保持價格穩定和實現最大就業，擺脫了之前對通脹的專注。
"The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable," Powell said, adding that "we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions."
鮑威爾表示：「勞動力市場狀況的降溫是明顯的」，補充說：「我們不尋求或歡迎勞動力市場狀況進一步降溫。」
Job gains are still solid but have decelerated this year, he said. Job vacancies have decreased, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range, the Fed chair said.
他說，今年的就業增長仍然穩定，但有所放緩。空缺職位減少，空缺與失業率的比例回到了疫情前的區間，聯儲局主席說。
Both hiring and quits rates have dropped below the levels seen in 2018 and 2019, while nominal wage growth has moderated. Overall, labor market conditions are now less tight than they were just before the pandemic in 2019.
招聘和離職率已經下降至2018年和2019年的水平以下，而名義工資增長已經放緩。總體而言，勞動力市場條件現在比2019年疫情爆發前要寬鬆。
The recent rise in unemployment is largely due to a significant increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously rapid pace of hiring, Powell said.
鮑威爾表示，最近失業率上升主要是由於勞動者供應量的顯著增加，以及之前快速招聘步伐的放緩。
Market Reactions
市場反應
Treasury yields tumbled in reaction to the Powell's speech, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) up by 0.8%.
國債etf的收益率在鮑威爾講話後大幅下跌，導致納斯達克的iShares 20+年國債etf（NASDAQ:TLT）上漲了0.8%。
The dollar tumbled against major currencies, with the rate-sensitive dollar-yen pair tumbling 0.6%.
美元兌主要貨幣大幅下跌，受利率敏感影響的美元-日元匯率下跌了0.6%。
Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), was up over 1%.
黃金，由紐交所的spdr金etf（NYSE:GLD）躍升超過1%。
Stocks also rose, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), up 1%. Small caps rallied, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), up by 2.2%.
股票也上漲了，紐交所的spdr標普500 etf信託（NYSE:SPY）上漲了1%。小盤股上漲，紐交所的iShares羅素2000指數etf（NYSE:IWM）漲幅達2.2%。
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.
使用人工智能通過MidJourney創建的插圖。