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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN)
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Texas Instruments fair value estimate is US$202
- Current share price of US$204 suggests Texas Instruments is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Analyst price target for TXN is US$208, which is 3.2% above our fair value estimate
Does the August share price for Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$4.03b | US$8.02b | US$11.3b | US$11.7b | US$12.0b | US$12.3b | US$12.7b | US$13.0b | US$13.3b | US$13.7b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x12 | Analyst x7 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 2.86% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.67% | Est @ 2.62% | Est @ 2.59% | Est @ 2.56% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | US$3.7k | US$6.9k | US$8.9k | US$8.5k | US$8.1k | US$7.7k | US$7.3k | US$6.9k | US$6.6k | US$6.2k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$71b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$14b× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.5%) = US$248b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$248b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= US$113b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$184b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$204, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
![1724432565474](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240824/42814326-0-58b4d32f015d166d21b7e9719a5b705a.webp/bigjpg)
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Texas Instruments as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.373. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Texas Instruments
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Balance sheet summary for TXN.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- See TXN's dividend history.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Texas Instruments, we've compiled three fundamental aspects you should consider:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Texas Instruments we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does TXN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
主要見解
- 使用2階段自由現金流對股權進行估值,德州儀器的公允價值估計爲202美元。
- 當前股價爲204美元,表明德州儀器的交易價格可能接近其公允價值。
- 德州儀器的分析師目標股價爲208美元,比我們的公允價值估計高出3.2%。
德州儀器股票(NASDAQ:TXN)的8月份股價是否反映了其真實價值?今天,我們將通過估計公司的未來現金流量並將其貼現到現值,來估計該股的內在價值。我們的分析將採用貼現現金流量(DCF)模型。聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上非常簡單!
我們通常認爲,一家公司的價值是其未來所有現金流的現值之和。然而,DCF僅是衆多估值指標之一,它並非沒有缺陷。對於那些熱衷於股權分析的學習者來說,在這裏,Simply Wall St分析模型可能值得一提。
通過計算的步驟:
我們正在使用2階段增長模型,這意味着我們考慮公司2個增長階段。在初始階段,公司可能具有較高的增長率,第二階段通常被認爲具有穩定的增長率。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來10年內的業務現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的預測,但當這些不可得時,我們會推斷出上一個自由現金流(FCF)的近似值。我們假設自由現金流縮減的公司將會減緩縮減速度,自由現金流增長的公司將會看到它們的增長率在此期間減緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期年份的增長速度比後期年份要慢。
DCF的核心概念是未來的每一美元都比現在的每一美元更不值錢,因此我們將這些未來的現金流貼現到當今的價值:
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
槓桿自由現金流 ($, 百萬) | 40.3億美元 | 80.2億美元 | 113億美元 | 117億美元 | 查看德州儀器的分紅歷史。 | 123億美元 | 127億美元。 | 130億美元 | 133億美元 | 137億美元 |
增長率估計來源 | 分析師x12 | 共計7位分析師。 | 分析師x2 | 分析師x2 | 以2.86%爲估計值 | 估值爲2.75% | 預計爲2.67% | 按2.62%估算 | 估計收益率 @ 2.59% | 223美元 |
現值($,百萬)8.2%折現 | 3.7千美元 | US$6.9千美元 | 8900美元 | 8500美元。 | US$8.1k | 7700美元 | US$7.3千美元 | US$6.9千美元 | US$6.6千美元 | 6,200美元 |
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估計的自由現金流增長率)
![](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240824/42814326-0-58b4d32f015d166d21b7e9719a5b705a.webp/bigjpg)
假設
- 債務不被視爲風險。
- 過去一年的收益下降了。
- 與半導體市場前25%分紅付款者相比,分紅較低。
- 基於市銷率和預估公允價值過高。
- 年度收入預計增速將快於美國市場。
- 股息不被現金流覆蓋。
- 預計年度收益增長速度將慢於美國市場。
接下來:
- 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?
PS。Simply Wall St 應用程序每天針對納斯達克股票市場上的每隻股票進行現金流折現估值。如果您想找到其他股票的計算,請在此處搜索。
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Moomoo Securities Australia Limited提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Moomoo Securities Australia Limited, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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