Is Shenzhen SEGLtd (SZSE:000058) A Risky Investment?
Is Shenzhen SEGLtd (SZSE:000058) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000058) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄(Li Lu)毫不掩飾地表示:「最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是是否會遭受永久性資本損失。」 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過重可能導致破產。就像許多其他公司一樣,深圳SEG股份有限公司(SZSE:000058)也在使用債務。但真正的問題是,這些債務是否會讓公司變得風險更大。
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務是幫助企業成長的一種工具,但如果企業無力償還債權人,則存在於債權人的支配之下。最壞的情況下,如果一個公司無法償還債權人,則可能破產。雖然這種情況不太常見,但我們經常看到負債企業因債權人被迫以貼現價格籌集資本而永久稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,並沒有任何負面後果。當我們考慮債務水平時,首先要考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Shenzhen SEGLtd's Net Debt?
深圳SEG有限公司的淨債務是多少?
As you can see below, Shenzhen SEGLtd had CN¥842.0m of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥1.22b in cash, so it actually has CN¥375.3m net cash.
如下所示,深圳SEG有限公司在2024年3月有人民幣84200萬元的債務,與前一年相當。您可以單擊圖表以獲得更詳細的信息。 但是,其資產負債表顯示它持有人民幣12.2億的現金,因此實際上淨現金爲37530萬元。
How Strong Is Shenzhen SEGLtd's Balance Sheet?
深賽格b的資產負債表有多強?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shenzhen SEGLtd had liabilities of CN¥2.10b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥723.4m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.22b and CN¥453.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥1.15b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
我們可以從最近的資產負債表看出,深賽格b有應付的短期債務21億人民幣,還有72340萬人民幣的長期債務。另一方面,它有12.2億人民幣的現金和短期應收賬款45320萬人民幣。因此,它的負債總計比現金和短期應收款多115億人民幣。
Of course, Shenzhen SEGLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥6.06b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Shenzhen SEGLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
當然,深賽格b的市值爲60.6億人民幣,因此這些負債可能是可以承受的。但是有足夠的負債,我們肯定建議股東繼續監視資產負債表的變化。儘管有顯著的負債,深賽格b擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有沉重的債務負擔!
The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Shenzhen SEGLtd if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 77% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shenzhen SEGLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
如果管理層無法阻止過去一年EBIT減少了77%,那麼深賽格b的債務負擔將變得至關重要。盈利下降(如果趨勢持續下去)最終可能會使即使是適度的債務變得非常風險。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲深賽格b將需要盈利來償還債務。因此,如果您渴望了解更多有關其盈利的信息,可能值得查看其長期盈利趨勢的圖表。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Shenzhen SEGLtd has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Shenzhen SEGLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
但最後的考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司無法用虛假利潤來償還債務;它需要真金白銀。雖然深賽格b在資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍然值得一看其將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解它構建(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。令任何股東高興的是,深賽格b在過去三年實際上產生的自由現金流比EBIT多。這種強勁的現金轉化讓我們興奮不已,就像達夫特朋克(Daft Punk)音樂會上的觀衆一樣。
Summing Up
總之
Although Shenzhen SEGLtd's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥375.3m. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥346m, being 375% of its EBIT. So we don't have any problem with Shenzhen SEGLtd's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Shenzhen SEGLtd you should be aware of.
雖然深賽格有限公司的資產負債表並不是特別強,由於總負債,看到它有人民幣37530萬的淨現金顯然是積極的。而且令我們印象深刻的是,它的自由現金流爲人民幣34600萬,相當於EBIT的375%。因此,我們對深賽格的債務使用沒有任何問題。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。有一個例子是:我們發現了一份有關深賽格有限公司的1個警告信號,你應該注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包括所有表現出盈利增長軌跡的公司。這是免費的。
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