Things Look Grim For MGI Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688114) After Today's Downgrade
Things Look Grim For MGI Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688114) After Today's Downgrade
One thing we could say about the analysts on MGI Tech Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688114) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
關於MGI科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688114)的分析師們可以說一件事——他們並不樂觀,剛剛對該組織的近期(法定)預測做出了重大的負面修訂。營業收入和每股收益(EPS)預測均下調,分析師們看到了未來的烏雲密佈。
Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from MGI Tech's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.7b in 2024, which would reflect a modest 2.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 38% to CN¥1.22. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥3.5b and CN¥0.33 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
在下調之後,MGI科技七名分析師的最新共識是,2024年營業額爲270億人民幣,這將反映與過去12個月相比略有2.4%的增長。每股虧損預計在不久的將來將大大減少,縮小38%至1.22人民幣。然而,在這次估算更新之前,共識一直在預期2024年的營業額爲350億人民幣,每股虧損爲0.33人民幣。因此,在最近的共識更新後,觀點發生了相當大的變化,分析師們嚴重削減了他們的營收預測,同時也預計每股虧損會增加。
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The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥75.48, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.
共識價格目標基本保持不變,爲人民幣75.48元,或許是在暗示預期的較弱盈利前景不會對估值產生長期影響。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that MGI Tech's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.9% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 16% a year over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. Although MGI Tech's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.
現在來看更大的圖片,我們可以理解這些預測的一種方式是,將它們與過去的業績和行業增長預測進行對比。例如,我們注意到MGI科技的增長率預計將有顯著加速,預測到2024年底,年化基礎上營收將增長4.9%。這遠高於其過去三年平均每年16%的歷史下滑。將此與對更廣泛行業的分析師預測進行比較,這些預測表明(總體上)行業營收預計未來將以13%的年均增長率增長。儘管MGI科技的營收預計將改善,但分析師們似乎仍對業務持看淡態度,預計其增長速度將慢於更廣泛的行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at MGI Tech. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that MGI Tech's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of MGI Tech.
這次降級中最重要的事情是共識增加了今年的預計虧損,這表明MGI Tech可能不是一切順利。不幸的是,分析師們還降低了他們對營業收入的預期,並且行業數據顯示,MGI Tech的營業收入增長速度預計將低於整個市場。價格目標的不變在降級的情況下是令人困惑的,但考慮到今年預計會出現嚴重下降,如果投資者對MGI Tech有些警惕也不會讓我們感到驚訝。
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple MGI Tech analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
儘管如此,對於股東的價值創造來說,業務的長期軌跡更加重要。我們有多個MGI Tech分析師的預測數據,預測的時間段延伸到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
跟蹤管理層是購買還是銷售,是尋找可能達到關鍵點的有趣公司的另一種方法,我們的免費公司列表由內部支持的增長公司組成。
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