Maybank Raises Malaysia's GDP Growth Forecast To 5.2% After Impressive 1H
Maybank Raises Malaysia's GDP Growth Forecast To 5.2% After Impressive 1H
In its reveiw of economic development in ASEAN, Malaybank has noted that Malaysia's economic landscape continued to impress, with 2Q24 real GDP growth accelerating to 5.9% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in 1Q24, marking a strong 1H24 growth of 5.1%.
Maybank在對東盟的經濟發展進行評估時,指出馬來西亞的經濟形勢仍然令人印象深刻,2024年第二季度實際GDP增長加速至5.9%,同比增長率從1Q24的4.2%上升,標誌着強勁的上半年增長達到了5.1%。
This uptick Maybank said prompts an upgrade in GDP growth forecasts for 2024 to 5.2% from the previous 4.7%, with expectations for 2025 remaining at 5.1%. The improved outlook is underpinned by robust investment and construction activities, buoyed by ongoing infrastructure projects such as the East Coast Rail Link and the Pan Borneo Highway. The consumer sector also benefits from a proposed 15% salary increase for civil servants, expected to drive higher consumer spending. Notable changes in stock ratings include an upgrade for YTL Power to BUY, reflecting easing concerns over earnings and Wessex's return to profitability. Conversely, Frontken's earnings disappointment results in a downgrade to HOLD. ITMAX receives an upgrade as well, following contract wins for smart city projects, including a MYR540 million deal for additional CCTV installations.
Maybank表示,這一上升勢頭推動了2024年GDP增長預測率從之前的4.7%升至5.2%,預計2025年將保持在5.1%的水平。這一改善的前景得益於投資和施工活動的強勁推動,受到東海岸鐵路和巴基尼奧公路等進行中的基礎設施項目的支撐。消費者部門也受益於計劃加薪15%的公務員預期,預計將推動消費者支出增加。股票評級方面的明顯變化包括將YTL Power的評級升級爲買入,反映了對盈利的擔憂減輕和Wessex公司盈利能力恢復的預期。相反,Frontken的盈利失望導致評級降級爲持有。ITMAX也得到了升級,因爲該公司贏得了智慧城市項目的合同,包括額外的閉路電視安裝交易54000萬馬幣。
As for other parts of the region, Singapore's 2Q24 GDP growth, while slightly slower than 1Q, is expected to strengthen in the latter half of the year, supported by a surge in July non-oil domestic exports, indicating a rebound in global electronics demand. The equity market's focus is on selective stocks in sectors like Gaming, Industrials, and Internet. AEM and FEH face downgrades to SELL and HOLD respectively, due to weak results and margin pressures, while SEA's target price is raised following strong 2Q performance. PROP is also downgraded due to falling private home sales.
至於該地區的其他地方,新加坡的2024年第二季度GDP增長雖然略慢於第一季度,但預計在年底時會有所加強,受到七月非石油國內出口激增的支撐,表明了全球電子產品需求的復甦。股票市場關注的焦點是遊戲、工業和互聯網等行業的選擇性股票。昂發和順豐站面臨售賣和持有的降級,由於業績疲軟和毛利率壓力,隨着第二季度表現強勁,SEA的目標價上調。酋長道也因私人住宅銷售下滑而被降級。
Indonesia's fiscal outlook is solid, with a credible 2025 GDP growth target of 5.2% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.5%. However, the Rupiah's rally may face challenges, and domestic political tensions could impact sentiment. Despite recent strong market rallies, a cautious approach is recommended, especially with potential profit-taking. Commodity stocks, particularly nickel mining operators, are suggested for accumulation. The consumer sector faces regulatory risks from proposed sugar taxes, while MTEL and MAPI remain top picks for their growth potential in mobile networks and retail.
印度尼西亞的財政前景良好,2025年GDP增長目標爲5.2%,財政赤字目標爲2.5%。然而,印尼盾的升值可能面臨挑戰,國內政治緊張局勢可能影響市場情緒。儘管最近市場出現強勁的反彈,但建議採取謹慎態度,尤其是在可能出現獲利了結的情況下。建議積累大宗商品股票,特別是鎳礦企業。消費者部門面臨來自擬議糖稅的監管風險,而MTEL和MAPI因其在移動網絡和零售領域的增長潛力而保持首選。
Thailand's SET Index is poised for recovery following the removal of political uncertainties with Paetongtarn Shinawatra's appointment as Prime Minister. Economic growth is anticipated to strengthen from 3Q24 onwards, with a significant portion of the FY24 budget already disbursed. The 2Q24 GDP growth of 2.3% year-on-year reflects improvements in tourism and public spending. The Bank of Thailand's decision to maintain policy rates supports economic stability. Upgrades in tourism stocks are highlighted due to attractive valuations, while SAWAD is upgraded to BUY based on its improving loan growth strategy. SAT and CPNREIT face downgrades due to disappointing earnings and limited upside, respectively.
泰國的SET指數有望在帕通塔恩·西那瓦拉任命爲總理後實現復甦。從24年第三季度開始,經濟增長預計將加強,已經發放了大部分24財年預算。24年第二季度GDP同比增長2.3%,反映出旅遊業和公共支出的改善。泰國銀行決定保持政策利率,支持經濟穩定。由於具有吸引力的估值,旅遊股的評級上調,而SAWAD基於其不斷改善的貸款增長策略被升級爲買入。由於盈利令人失望和上行空間有限,SAt和CPNREIt的評級遭到下調。
The Philippines sees a notable increase in the PSEi, driven by strong GDP growth of 6.3% in 2Q24, buoyed by domestic demand and public consumption. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cuts its policy rate, signalling potential further reductions. The corporate earnings season has been favourable, prompting adjustments in the "Magic 8" picks, with CNPF upgraded to BUY due to strong earnings momentum and a positive outlook.
菲律賓PSEi指數增長顯著,得益於2Q24的強勁GDP增長,受國內需求和公共消費的推動。菲律賓央行降低政策利率,標誌着可能進一步減息。企業盈利季節有利,促使「Magic 8」選擇進行調整,CNPF因盈利勢頭強勁和積極前景而被提升至買入。
Vietnam's economic recovery is supported by easing FX pressures and strong 2Q24 corporate earnings growth. The VN-Index's recent gains may lead to profit-taking, but long-term prospects remain positive, with expectations for an upgrade to emerging market status in 2025. Key stock picks include banks, consumers, and tech stocks, reflecting optimism about Vietnam's market and economic trajectory.
越南的經濟復甦得到外匯壓力緩解和24年第二季度企業盈利增長的支持。VN指數最近的漲勢可能導致獲利了結,但長期前景仍然積極,預計將於2025年升級爲新興市場地位。重要的股票選擇包括銀行、消費者和科技股,反映了對越南市場和經濟前景的樂觀態度。
Source: Maybank
Title: ASEAN+ FORTNIGHTLY
資料來源:馬來亞銀行
標題:東盟+ 雙週簡報