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APEC Growth Projected At 3.5% Despite Ongoing Challenges

APEC Growth Projected At 3.5% Despite Ongoing Challenges

儘管面臨持續的挑戰,亞太經合組織的增長預計爲3.5%。
Business Today ·  08/26 05:02

The APEC region is projected to maintain stable economic growth at 3.5 percent, showcasing resilience in the face of uncertainty and ongoing challenges.

APEC地域預計保持穩定的經濟增長率爲3.5%,展現出在不確定性和持續挑戰面前的韌性。

According to the August update of the APEC Regional Trends Analysis, the region's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024, consistent with the growth rate observed in 2023.

根據APEC區域性趨勢分析的8月更新,預計該地區的國內生產總值(GDP)將在2024年增長3.5%,與2023年觀察到的增長率相一致。

However, a slight deceleration is anticipated for 2025, with growth expected to ease to 3.1 percent, marking an improvement from earlier projections in May of 2.9 percent, as noted in a release issued by the APEC Policy Support Unit received here on Monday.

然而,預計2025年將出現輕微減速,預計增長率將放緩至3.1%,這是一個改善,早些時候在5月發佈的APEC政策支持小組的一份聲明中指出的預測爲2.9%。

Director of the APEC Policy Support Unit Carlos Kuriyama stated that the collective commitment to controlling inflation and adopting prudent monetary policies has been pivotal while growth rates may vary across the region.

APEC政策支持單元主任Carlos Kuriyama表示,控制通脹和採取審慎的貨幣政策的集體承諾是至關重要的,儘管增長率可能在地區各地有所不同。

"As we move forward, it is crucial that we remain vigilant and flexible, ensuring that our economies can weather future challenges and continue on a path of sustainable development," he said.

「在我們前進的過程中,我們必須保持警惕和靈活,確保我們的經濟能夠應對未來的挑戰,繼續走可持續發展之路,」他說。

APEC economies have seen significant success in moderating inflation, with the average inflation rate declining to 2.8 percent in June 2024, down from 5.9 percent in January 2023.

APEC經濟體在控制通脹方面取得了顯着的成功,2024年6月的平均通脹率從2023年1月的5.9%下降到2.8%。

This reduction underscores the effectiveness of the monetary policies implemented across the region.

這個降低突顯了該地區實施的貨幣政策的有效性。

"Central banks in APEC have mostly maintained a cautious approach, avoiding premature rate reductions that could trigger capital flight and currency depreciation," according to Rhea C. Hernando, an analyst with the Policy Support Unit.

「在APEC中,中央銀行主要採取謹慎的方法,避免過早減息可能引發資本外流和貨幣貶值,」Policy Support Unit的分析師Rhea C. Hernando說。

"As a result, APEC has seen the appreciation or slowing depreciation of 20 currencies against the US dollar in recent months," Hernando added.

結果,APEC近幾個月看到了20種貨幣相對於美元的升值或減值幅度減緩。

Trade performance within the APEC region expanded, with merchandise exports in the first quarter of 2024 growing by 3.9 percent in volume and 1.6 percent in value as compared to the same period in 2023. This trend aligns with the anticipated global trade volume rebound of 3.1 percent in 2024.

APEC地區的貿易表現有所擴大,2024年第一季度商品出口量同比增長3.9%,價值增長1.6%。這一趨勢與預期的2024年全球貿易量反彈3.1%相吻合。

"Additionally, domestic consumption has shown resilience, further bolstering economic optimism across the region," a researcher with the Policy Support Unit, Glacer Niño A. Vasquez, said.

此外,國內消費表現出韌性,進一步增強了整個地區的經濟樂觀情緒。

He noted that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index across APEC economies remained steady, reflecting favorable manufacturing activity.

他指出,APEC經濟體的製造業採購經理人指數保持穩定,反映了良好的製造業活動。

The report highlights that the region is currently grappling with increased trade tensions, which have led to a notable rise in trade restrictions and remedies, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

報告強調,該地區目前正在應對日益加劇的貿易緊張局勢,導致貿易限制措施和補救措施,如反傾銷和補貼稅的明顯增加。

Persistent supply chain disruptions have also increased the cost and time of transporting goods across the border, putting additional pressure on prices.

持續的供應鏈中斷也增加了跨境貨物的成本和時間,給價格帶來了額外的壓力。

Strategic economic policies and international cooperation are expected to play a crucial role in navigating these issues.

戰略經濟政策和國際合作預計在應對這些問題中起着關鍵作用。

APEC economies are encouraged to adjust monetary policy carefully, rebuild fiscal buffers, and explore policy alternatives that enhance trade relations without restricting trade and investment.

鼓勵APEC經濟體謹慎調整貨幣政策,重建財政緩衝,探索在不限制貿易和投資的情況下增進貿易關係的政策替代方案。

"The steady growth we are witnessing across the APEC region, despite global uncertainties, is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of our economies," Kuriyama stated.

庫裏山表示:儘管全球存在不確定性,但亞太經合組織(APEC)地區持續增長是我們經濟的適應性和韌性的證明。

"As we continue to navigate complex challenges, APEC's commitment to sound economic policies and regional cooperation will be critical in sustaining this momentum and fostering long-term prosperity," he said.

他說:「在我們持續應對複雜挑戰的同時,APEC對穩健的經濟政策和地區合作的承諾將對維持這一勢頭和促進長期繁榮至關重要。」

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