Morgan Stanley Slashes Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast For 2024: Report
Morgan Stanley Slashes Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast For 2024: Report
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts reportedly lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024.
摩根士丹利（紐交所：MS）分析師據報道，下調了2024年全球石油需求增長預測。
The bank cited slower economic growth in China, increased electric vehicle adoption, and a rise in LNG-powered trucks in the country, reported Reuters.
該銀行引用路透社報道稱，中國經濟增長放緩，電動車採用增加，該國LNG動力卡車增加。
In particular, the bank reduced its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.2 mbpd.
尤其是該銀行將2024年全球石油需求增長預測從1.2百萬桶/日降至110萬桶/日。
Morgan Stanley also lowered its Brent price forecast, expecting prices to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, down from the previous estimate of $85 per barrel.
摩根士丹利還下調了布倫特原油價格預測，預計第四季度平均價格爲每桶80美元，低於先前的85美元的預測。
As per the report, Brent crude traded around $78 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $74.52.
根據報道，布倫特原油週五交投於每桶78美元，而美國西得克薩斯輕質原油期貨價格爲74.52美元。
Analysts noted that China's shift to LNG trucks has reduced oil demand growth by 100-150 kbd, and EV adoption has displaced about 100 kbd of gasoline demand.
分析師指出，中國轉向LNG卡車使石油需求增長減少了100-150千桶/日，電動汽車的採用消耗了約100千桶/日的汽油需求。
The oil market is tight, with inventories down by 1.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks. Morgan Stanley analysts expect this trend to continue through the third quarter.
石油市場緊張，過去四周庫存減少了120萬桶/日。摩根士丹利分析師預計這一趨勢將持續到第三季度。
Recently, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global oil demand growth estimate for 2024 to 1.78 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is down from the previous projection of 1.85 mb/d.
最近，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）將2024年全球石油需求增長預測調低至178萬桶/日，低於先前的1.85百萬桶/日的預測。
For 2025, OPEC lowered oil demand growth globally to 2.11 mb/d vs. the prior estimate of 2.25 mb/d.
對於2025年，歐佩克將全球石油需求增長預測降至2.11百萬桶/日，而之前的估計值爲2.25百萬桶/日。
OPEC stated, "This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter of 2024 and, in some cases, the second quarter, as well as reduced expectations for China's oil demand growth in 2024."
歐佩克表示：「這個微小的修正反映了2024年一季度和部分情況下的二季度的實際數據，以及對中國2024年石油需求增長的降低預期。」
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