Stock Market To See 'Choppy, Erratic, Volatile Moves' In Short Term, Warns Expert, As Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cuts
Stock Market To See 'Choppy, Erratic, Volatile Moves' In Short Term, Warns Expert, As Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cuts
However, if the Fed's message indicates concern about the economy, the excitement about the cutting cycle may need to be reassessed. Historically, stocks have performed better when rate cuts occur against a backdrop of resilient growth rather than during a sharp economic downturn.The U.S. stock market is preparing for a period of volatility as the Federal Reserve signals an imminent reduction in interest rates. Investors are keenly watching upcoming economic data to gauge the feasibility of the "soft landing" scenario that has supported U.S. stocks throughout the year.
隨着聯儲局暗示即將減息，美國股市正準備迎接一段波動時期。投資者正在密切關注即將公佈的經濟數據，以評估支撐美國股市整年表現的「軟着陸」情景的可行性。
What Happened: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced last Friday that it's time to start lowering interest rates. The rate-cutting process is likely to begin next month with a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Sep. 17-18.
事件回顧：聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾上週五宣佈，現在是時候開始減息了。減息行動可能會在下個月開始，聯儲局在9月17-18日的貨幣政策會議上可能會進行25個點子的減息。
Despite the S&P 500 gaining 18% this year, market participants are seeking continued evidence of the economy's smooth transition to a soft landing, where growth remains strong while inflation cools, Reuters reported on Monday.
儘管標普500指數今年上漲了18%，市場參與者仍在尋求經濟平穩過渡至軟着陸的持續證據，即經濟保持強勁增長的同時通脹逐漸降溫。據路透社週一報道。
However, if the Fed's message indicates concern about the economy, the excitement about the cutting cycle may need to be reassessed. Historically, stocks have performed better when rate cuts occur against a backdrop of resilient growth rather than during a sharp economic downturn.
然而，如果聯儲局的訊息表明對經濟存在擔憂，那麼對減息週期的興奮情緒可能需要重新評估。歷史數據顯示，在經濟增長強勁時進行利率下調，股票的表現要好於在經濟急劇下滑時進行利率下調。
Andre Bakhos, managing member at Ingenium Analytics LLC, said, "The longer-term trends in stocks are rock-solid and any weakness is an opportunity to add exposure." However, he warned of potential short-term volatility, stating, "we're going to get ... choppy, erratic, volatile moves because no one really knows what happens now that he (Powell) has shown his hand."
Ingenium Analytics 司的董事總經理安德烈·巴科斯表示，「股票的長期趨勢非常穩固，任何疲軟都是增加風險暴露的機會。」 但他對潛在的短期波動提出警告，稱「我們可能會見到...混亂、不穩定、波動的走勢，因爲沒有人真正知道現在他（鮑威爾）已經掀開了面紗之後會發生什麼。」
Why It Matters: The Federal Reserve's shift from a hawkish tone to signaling a rate cut has been prompted by a string of weak data and continued improvement in pricing pressure. However, historical data suggests that the market may not fare well in the months following a rate cut.
爲什麼重要：聯儲局從鷹派口吻轉向減息的轉變是受到一系列疲軟數據和價格壓力持續改善的推動。然而，歷史數據表明，在減息後的幾個月裏，市場可能表現不佳。
Furthermore, Drew Matus, MetLife Investment Management's chief market strategist, has urged Powell to separate the Fed's actions from the stock market. He argued that the Fed's decisions should not be influenced by the unemployment rate exceeding 4%, or by the easing of financial conditions.
此外，美國大都會人壽投資管理的首席市場策略師德魯·馬圖斯敦促鮑威爾將聯儲局的舉措與股市分開。他認爲，聯儲局的決定不應受失業率超過4%或金融條件放緩的影響。
Price Action: On Monday, at the time of writing, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was trading 0.17% higher while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) was down by 0.26%, according to Benzinga Pro.
價格走勢：週一，在撰寫時，標普500ETF信託（NYSE:SPY）上漲了0.17%，而納斯達克100ETF（NASDAQ:QQQ）下跌了0.26%，據彭博專業版報道。
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Image via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本報道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，並由Pooja Rajkumari編輯