Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's (SZSE:301533) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think
Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's (SZSE:301533) Anemic Earnings Might Be Worse Than You Think
The market wasn't impressed with the soft earnings from Weima Agricultural Machinery Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301533) recently. We did some further digging and think they have a few more reasons to be concerned beyond the statutory profit.
最近大衆農機股份有限公司 (SZSE:301533) 的業績不佳並沒有給市場留下深刻印象。我們進行了更深入的調查,發現他們還有更多的問題需要擔心,不僅僅是法人利潤。
A Closer Look At Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's Earnings
對大衆農機股份有限公司的收益進行更詳細的分析
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
用於衡量公司如何將其利潤轉換爲自由現金流(FCF)的一個重要的財務比率是應計比率。爲了獲得應計比率,我們首先從一段時間的利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該期間的平均營運資產。該比率向我們展示了公司的利潤超過自由現金流的程度。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,負的應計比率對公司來說是積極的,而正的應計比率則是消極的。雖然應計比率高於零並不值得擔心,但當公司有相對較高的應計比率時,我們認爲這值得注意。引用Lewellen和Resutek 2014年的一篇論文:「應計比率較高的公司未來往往利潤較低」。
For the year to June 2024, Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.35. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥658k during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of CN¥74.0m. Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
對於2024年截至6月的一年來說,大衆農機股份有限公司的應計比率爲0.35。因此,我們知道其自由現金流遠遠低於其法人利潤,這引發了關於利潤數據的實際有效性的疑問。事實上,在這段時間內,它的自由現金流爲65.8萬人民幣,遠遠低於其報告的利潤7400萬人民幣。大衆農機股份有限公司的股東無疑希望它的自由現金流在明年回升,因爲在過去12個月裏它一直在下降。然而,還有其他需要考慮的因素。應計比率在一定程度上反映了非常規項目對法人利潤的影響。對股東來說,好消息是大衆農機股份有限公司的應計比率去年要好得多,所以今年的差勁數據可能只是利潤和自由現金流之間短期不匹配的情況。如果確實如此,股東應該期待今年現金流相對於利潤的改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的強度。點擊這裏查看我們對維馬農機股份有限公司資產負債表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常規項目如何影響利潤?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥7.9m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).
考慮到計提比率,不難理解維馬農機股份有限公司過去十二個月的利潤被價值790萬人民幣的非常規項目提振。我們不能否認,更高的利潤通常讓我們對公司持樂觀態度,但我們更希望利潤能夠可持續。當我們分析了全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現非常規項目往往不會重複出現。畢竟,這正是會計術語所暗示的。假設這些非常規項目在今年不會再次出現,那麼我們預計利潤在明年可能會較弱(在沒有業務增長的情況下)。
Our Take On Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's Profit Performance
我們對維馬農機股份有限公司的利潤表現的觀點
Summing up, Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you want to do dive deeper into Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, Weima Agricultural MachineryLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
總結一下,維馬農機股份有限公司從非常規項目中獲得了利潤的良好提升,但無法用自由現金流匹配其賬面利潤。考慮到這一切,我們認爲維馬農機股份有限公司的利潤可能給出了一個過於慷慨的可持續盈利水平的印象。如果您想更深入地了解維馬農機股份有限公司,您還應該了解它當前面臨的風險。例如,維馬農機股份有限公司有2個警告信號(其中1個可能很嚴重),我們認爲您應該知道。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
在本文章中,我們研究了幾個可能影響利潤數據實用性的因素,我們對此持謹慎態度。但是,如果您能夠將精力集中在細節上,就一定會發現更多。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報是良好企業經濟的指標,而其他人則喜歡"跟隨資金"並尋找內部人員在購買的股票。因此,您可能希望查看這個高股本回報的免費收藏,或此具有高內部所有權的股票列表。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。