Celebrations may be in order for Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance.

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from Pop Mart International Group's 18 analysts is for revenues of CN¥10b in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a huge 27% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to shoot up 36% to CN¥1.56. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥9.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.37 in 2024. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Pop Mart International Group 14% to CN¥47.33 on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Pop Mart International Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥55.46 and the most bearish at CN¥31.37 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Pop Mart International Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 61% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Pop Mart International Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at Pop Mart International Group.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Pop Mart International Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.