Is Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech (SZSE:002741) A Risky Investment?
Is Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech (SZSE:002741) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002741) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,與其擔心股價波動,不如擔心永久性損失的可能性...我認識的每個實際投資者都會擔心這一點。當我們考慮一個公司有多風險時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過多可能導致滅頂之災。我們可以看到光華科技(SZSE:002741)在業務中確實使用了債務。但這筆債務是否令股東擔憂呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務有助於企業,在企業通過新的資本或自由現金流償還難以支付的債務之前。最終,如果公司不能履行償還債務的法律義務,則股東可能會一無所有。儘管這並不太常見,但我們經常看到負債累累的公司因爲借貸人迫使他們以低估價的價格籌集資本而永久稀釋股東權益。當然,債務對於資本密集型企業來說可能是一種重要的工具。當我們考慮公司的債務使用時,我們首先關注現金和債務。
What Is Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech's Debt?
光華科技的債務是什麼?
As you can see below, Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech had CN¥885.1m of debt at June 2024, down from CN¥933.4m a year prior. However, it does have CN¥237.8m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥647.3m.
正如您下面所看到的,光華科技於2024年6月的債務爲88510萬元人民幣,較去年同期的93340萬元人民幣有所下降。然而,它確實有23780萬元人民幣的現金來抵銷這筆債務,導致淨債務約爲64730萬元人民幣。
How Healthy Is Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech's Balance Sheet?
廣東光華科技的資產負債表狀況如何?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech had liabilities of CN¥1.47b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥238.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥237.8m in cash and CN¥718.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥749.3m.
通過查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到廣東光華科技在12個月內有1.47億人民幣的短期負債和2.38億人民幣的超過12個月到期的負債。與此相抵消的是,公司在12個月內有2.378億人民幣的現金和7.184億人民幣的應收賬款。因此,公司的負債大於其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和,達到7.493億人民幣。
Of course, Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech has a market capitalization of CN¥4.29b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
當然,廣東光華科技的市值爲4.29億人民幣,所以這些負債可能是可管理的。然而,我們認爲值得關注的是其資產負債表的實力,因爲隨着時間的推移,情況可能會發生變化。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是重點關注的領域。但是,未來的收入,而不僅僅是資產負債表,將決定廣東光華科技維持健康資產負債表的能力。所以,如果您想了解專業人士的觀點,您可能會對這份關於分析預測的免費報告感興趣。
In the last year Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 7.1%, to CN¥2.6b. We would much prefer see growth.
在過去的一年裏,廣東光華科技在利息和稅前虧損,並且其營業收入實際上減少了7.1%,至26億元人民幣。我們更希望看到增長。
Caveat Emptor
買方自負。
Over the last twelve months Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥294m. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. Another cause for caution is that is bled CN¥124m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we do consider the stock to be risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.
在過去的12個月中,廣東光華科技的利息和稅前虧損。具體來說,這種虧損達到了2.94億人民幣。當我們看到這一點並回顧其資產負債表上的負債,相對於現金來說,對於公司有任何債務似乎是不明智的。所以我們認爲其資產負債表有些緊張,但並非不可修復。另一個令人警惕的原因是,在過去的12個月中,公司的自由現金流爲負1240萬元人民幣。因此,我們認爲這支股票存在風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表以外的風險。這些風險很難發現。每家公司都有這些風險,我們已經發現了廣東光華科技的2個警示信號(其中1個是令人關注的!),您應該了解一下。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。
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